Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
626 FXUS63 KTOP 250732 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 232 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog possible this morning. - Precipitation chances continue to diminish for the late week and weekend. - Near normal temperatures into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Above normal mid/upper level height anomalies will remain in place over the central and northern Rockies over the next several days as Tuesday`s upper trough and the developing Gulf system linger over the Deep South. This keeps a rather tranquil pattern in place with little chance for precipitation and fairly steady temperatures. Surface high pressure centered over western Kansas combined with evening clearing and some areas of wet ground may give rise to some shallow fog through sunrise this morning. Will monitor satellite and observation trends for inclusion but the chance for an Advisory is rather low (15%). The track of the conglomeration of the upper lows to the southeast continues to trend farther east in recent model runs and the chances for precipitation in the NBM continue to fall in kind. The next significant system of note appears to be a modified Pacific cold front that passes in the Monday to Monday night timeframe which brings temperatures down noticeably, though far from impacting those with sensitive vegetation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Main concern is potential for ground fog formation. All sites would have some concern given higher evening rainfall amounts at MHK and FOE while TOP is favored climatologically. Crossover temperatures are expected to be passed soon with a strong inversion likely. Have included MIFG at this point and will watch trends. VFR conditions are expected otherwise. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Poage