750
FXUS63 KTOP 171718
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions both this afternoon and Tuesday
  afternoon, with heat indices in the mid 90s to near 102
  degrees.

- Thunderstorm chances in crease for the western and northern
  counties of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon through
  Wednesday night.

- A few storms across north central KS may be strong to severe
  Tuesday afternoon and evening with damaging wind gusts and
  heavy rainfall as the primary hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Early this morning an upper trough has moved inland on the Pacific
Northwest coast line. A broad upper ridge was located across
the southeast US with a ridge axis extending west into the
southern Plains.

The 6Z surface analysis showed a lee surface trough across eastern
CO, extending southward across eastern NM. A warm front extended from
a low pressure center cross southwest NE, northeast across SD into
central MN.

Today through Tuesday:

The Pacific northwest H5 trough will dig east-southeast across the
Great Basin, then lift northeast across the central and northern
high Plains. The stronger H5 jet max will remain across the central
and northern high Plains and portions of northwest KS into NE and MN.

This afternoon, the lee surface trough across eastern CO will deepen
and the tightest surface pressure gradient will develop across
western KS. Southerly winds across the western counties of the CWA
will increase to 25 to 35 MPH with some gusts up to 40 to 45
MPH. It looks a bit marginal for a wind advisory issuance. The
eastern half of the CWA will see winds increase by afternoon to
20 to 30 MPH range with some gusts of 35 to 40 MPH. The gusty
winds will continue into the evening hours. Thunderstorms will
develop across western KS ahead of a dryline that will mix east
to the CO/KS border. These storms should diminish through the
evening hours as they track northeast across west central KS
into NE, remaining west of the CWA. High temperatures will
reach the lower to mid 90s across the eastern half of the CWA
with mid to upper 90s across the western half of the CWA. Heat
indicies will range from the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.
The far southwest counties may see heat indices reach near 103.


Tuesday, low-level CAA across the northern Plains will cause a cold
front to move southward across the central Plains during the day.
The front will move southeast across northwest KS and approach north
central KS by 00Z. There will probably be sufficient convergence for
a line of showers and storms to develop ahead of the surface front.
Most CAMs show a line of storms developing along the front during
the afternoon hours across west central KS and south central NE.
The effective shear across the CWA will be less than 20 KTS, but
MLCAPES may reach 1500 to 2000 J/KG, so there could be some
stronger to severe wind gusts in the line of storms across the
northwest counties of the CWA during the late afternoon hours
into the evening hours. Highs on Tuesday will reach the lower to
mid 90s. Heat indices will run between 95 to 100 degrees.

Tuesday night through Wednesdays night:

A southern stream upper trough will develop across the
southwestern US, as the lead H5 trough lifts northeast into the
northern Great Lakes States. Several numerical models including
the NAM, GFS and ECMWF show the surface front becoming
stationary across the western and northern counties of the CWA
before lifting northwest as a warm front late Wednesday night.
There may be some marginally severe storms Tuesday evening
across north central KS and portions of northeast KS but if
storms train along and northwest of the front across north
central and northeast KS, there may be some heavy rainfall
Tuesday night into Wednesdays, resulting in some minor flooding.
The total QPF show nearly 2 inches of rainfall across the
northwest counties of the CWA Late Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday. QPF amounts drop off across east central KS with
only 0.05" to 0.25" of QPF. If the front pushes a bit farther
southeast before becoming stationary, then east central KS may
receive more rainfall, but the 00Z model runs show that east
central KS may remain dry. Highs along and northwest of the
surface front on Wednesday will only reach the lower to mid 80s.
The remainder of the CWA within the warm sector should see
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Thursday through Saturday:

The southeast US H5 ridge axis will expand westward into the
southern Plains, as the H5 trough across the the southwestern US
retrogrades westward into AZ and southern CA. The surface warm front
will lift northward into the northern Plains. Expect dry conditions
with temperatures slowly warming into Saturday. Highs on Thursday and
Friday will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, and highs on Saturday
will warm into the lower to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday:

The southwestern US H5 trough will lift northeast and phase with a
northern stream trough across the northern and central Plains. The
resulting low-level CAA will bring a weak front southward across the
CWA Saturday night which will provide a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the region Saturday night into Sunday. The
southern fringes of the H5 trough may also provide ascent as
well. Frontolysis occurs Sunday night and southerly winds
return. Expect only a slight cool down into the lower 90s for
highs on Sunday. Look for highs to warm back into the mid to
upper 90s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Gusty southerly winds this afternoon will continue overnight. The
low level jet will strengthen to 50-55 kt, but mechanical mixing
should keep surface winds gusty enough to lower confidence in any
significant LLWS. Directional shear should be small as well, with
the maximum low level jet out of the SSW, on top of S sfc winds.
Southerly winds and strong moisture return will favor a stratus deck
building around daybreak tomorrow morning, with some uncertainty on
whether or not cigs will be MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Record Warm Low Temperatures

June 17
               Record        Forecast
Concordia     75 (2018)         77
Topeka        78 (1918)         75

June 18

               Record        Forecast
Concordia     80 (1953)         75
Topeka        81 (2021)         78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Montgomery
CLIMATE...Flanagan