284
FXUS63 KTOP 041733
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms containing heavy rain exit to the east early this
 morning with some lingering flooding.

-A cold front could (30-50% chc) then bring scattered storms to eastern
 KS into this afternoon before the front moves southeast of the
 area this evening.

-Wet weather could return to the area this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

At 08Z (3 AM) today, a complex of thunderstorms was continuing to
move through eastern KS. Storms are capable of producing wind gusts
to around 50 mph, and have been producing torrential rainfall.
Pwats remain around 2.0 inches near and south of I-70 in eastern
KS with continued good moisture transport into the area. Thus,
a Flood Watch will remain in effect for a portion of east-
central KS until 14Z (9 AM) before storms exit to the east.
Rainfall totals between 1.0 and 3.0 inches seem likely, with
some isolated higher amounts possible into the early morning
hours.

For the rest of our holiday, a cold front will begin to move through
the forecast area late this morning and into the afternoon ahead of
a mid-level wave over the Upper Midwest. An unstable air mass will
be in place ahead of the boundary, but overall forcing does not look
very strong with the main mid-level support to the northeast. CAMs
show the possibility for scattered thunderstorm development near the
boundary so have a 30-50% chance for convection in eastern KS this
afternoon. If storms develop, a few could reach severe limits with
damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. Flooding could again occur
where storms track over saturated grounds. The boundary should be
progressive and is expected to be southeast of the forecast area by
this evening.

A surface ridge builds into the area from the north on Friday, which
should make for a nice day. Conditions will be dry as dew points
drop into the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs will warm into the low
and mid 80s and northwest winds will be breezy at 10-20 mph.
Increasing POPs return to northeast KS late Saturday and Sunday as
the next in a series of mid-level troughs moves across the northern
portion of the CONUS. Ahead of this feature, strong southerly flow
returns, with moisture increasing once again through the weekend.
The highest potential for this next round of wet weather currently
appears to be from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Once again,
heavy rainfall could occur with models generally showing another 0.5
to 1.5 inches possible. Drier weather is then expected into the
middle of next week with temperatures creeping upward each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Seeing the clouds breaking up in eastern KS via satellite, so
expecting VFR conditions to return to TOP/FOE in the first hour
or so of the period. Frontal boundary has passed all terminals,
so the chance for any isolated showers or rumbles of thunder to
impact terminals is very low the rest of today. Hi-res guidance
has been backing off on any post-frontal activity as well. With
clearing skies and light winds overnight, will monitor potential
for patchy fog especially in the river valley, but there may be
enough dry air advecting into the area to preclude this, so
confidence in that is low at this time. Otherwise, expect NW
winds under 10 kt through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Picha