Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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327 FXUS63 KTOP 231734 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers in east-central Kansas early today. - Chances for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms Tuesday. - Rain potential returns late Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Upper trough was moving east into central and western Kansas early this morning with scattered showers over the southeastern quarter of Kansas. Cloud cover remains persistent over much of the local area with temperatures still in the mid 50s to around 60 for most spots, not much cooler than Sunday afternoon values. The trough finally passes early this evening, taking a somewhat more neutral tilt through the day. This should continue to bring some light showers to east-central Kansas into the early afternoon with significant moisture depths decreasing by late afternoon. Instability may be just enough for a few thunderstorms in this activity. Clouds will still be enough to keep highs in eastern areas in the 60s with 70s in some clearing in the west. Clearing overspreads the bulk of the area tonight but clouds increase overnight as an upper wave digs southeast into the upper and middle Mississippi Valley. Weak high falls locally combining with increasing mid level lapse rates produces minor instability and chances for weak convection supported by warmer highs. A dry period continues to be expected for Tuesday night into early Thursday as the upper trough settles into the southern Mississippi Valley. The track and speed of this and a potential tropical system are quite uncertain for the late week and weekend, but there has been some suggestion of remnants of the latter rotating around the former and impacting the region. NBM PoPs have trended toward this solution though confidence in this occurring is limited. Temperatures for these periods should remain fairly close to late September normals. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. A VFR cloud deck will hang tough through the day and into the evening. A cold front will move through tomorrow late morning to early afternoon and may bring some rain or even an isolated thunderstorm to the area, but confidence in coverage and timing is too low at this time to mention in the TAF. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Jones