179
FXUS63 KTOP 271055
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
555 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues with near to slightly above normal
  temperatures into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

A mid-level closed low continues to meander across the
mid/lower Mississippi Valley this morning with Hurricane Helene
moving north across Georgia. An upper-level ridge currently
extending from the southwest CONUS towards the Great Lakes will
be nudged westward through the day as Helene merges with the
closed low. The forecast area remains sandwiched in between the
western ridge and eastern closed low with little change to the
overall airmass expected through the weekend. The only notable
change will be increased mid and high clouds Friday and
Saturday, although all the precipitation from this system will
remain to our east. A persistence forecast reigns supreme with
highs in the 80s through the weekend.

The closed upper low finally makes eastward progression on Monday,
allowing the ridge to build overhead and southerly low-level flow to
return. This will lead to Monday being the warmest day of the next
week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. A shortwave
diving southeast across the northern CONUS into the Great Lakes will
shunt a cold front through the area late Monday into Tuesday.
Frontal passage is expected to be dry given a lack of moisture, but
temperatures will be knocked down 10-20 degrees on Tuesday. The cool
down is short-lived as southerly flow returns on Wednesday and
temperatures rise back into the 80s for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Shallow fog at KTOP burns off by 13z with VFR conditions expected
afterwards. Winds increase this afternoon from the north at around
10kts with occasional gusts to 20kts before weakening this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan