921
FXUS63 KTOP 250546
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1246 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues through 8pm Tuesday, with heat indices
  between 105-110 degrees.

- Thunderstorms are possible tonight through Tuesday night, with
  highest confidence in eastern KS Tuesday evening. A few
  storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

- More seasonal temperatures midweek through the weekend, except
  Friday, with mainly nighttime storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

At mid afternoon, water vapor satellite showed a weak mid level
perturbation moving across western Kansas at 19Z. Some cumulus was
starting to develop over parts of central and south central Kansas,
but overall skies remained clear across north central and northeast
Kansas. Hot temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s along with
dewpoints in the 70s for much of the area were producing heat
indices in the 104 to 112 degree range as of mid afternoon.

Cannot rule out some isolated convection developing across central
Kansas late this afternoon and moving into north central Kansas.
Will add a low probability (around 15%) to account for this where
deepest mixing was occurring. Inverted "V" soundings would suggest a
potential for a strong wind gust. Additional storms could move in
from western Kansas or southern Nebraska later this evening and
overnight. The convection is expected to end during the early
morning hours on Tuesday.

For Tuesday, another day of excessive heat is expected with the
thermal axis extending from the southern Plains across eastern
Kansas. Highs again will be in the mid 90s to near 100 with heat
indices of 104 to 109 in the afternoon. A frontal boundary is
forecast to move southward across Nebraska and into parts of
northern Kansas late in the afternoon to early evening. A mid
level wave moving across the central and northern Plains will
aid in pushing the boundary southward. Better forcing looks to
be focused to the north into Nebraska and Iowa. Storms that
develop along the front would move southeast into northeast
Kansas. Further west more isolated storms will be possible
across central Kansas. Expect convection to develop by late
afternoon or early evening. Highest probability (60-70%)
continues to look like east of Highway 75 into Missouri.

Cooler temperatures are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday behind
the front with high pressure building south. SOme convection may be
possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning with storms
developing in the western high Plains then moving eastward through
the night.

The thermal axis returns on Friday with southwesterly flow across
the southern and central Plains. Heat indices will once again rise
to around advisory levels of 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southerly winds
increase late morning with gusts subsiding after sunset. The
main challenge is with convection toward the end of this period.
Confidence is not overly high given the models` variability in
timing and track of the system as it dives south from IA. Have
settled on VCTS at TOP/FOE for now with highest chances being
in eastern KS toward MO, and lesser confidence west of Topeka.
Adjustments will likely be needed in future issuances as trends
continue to be monitored.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Record hot temperatures are possible Tuesday


          Record High              Forecast High

June 25   Topeka: 106 (1911)       Topeka: 97
          Concordia: 104 (1988)    Concordia: 100


          Record Highest Minimum   Forecast Minimum

June 25   Topeka: 82 (1911)        Topeka: 78
          Concordia: 80 (1952)     Concordia: 76

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Poage