550
FXUS63 KTOP 291111
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue today, mainly south of I-35.

- Cooler temperatures today and Sunday, but hot and humid conditions
  return Monday and Tuesday.

- Periodic storm chances for the next week, best chances next
  Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Early this morning a mid level trough was moving across the northern
and central Plains. An embedded PV anomaly was moving across
northeastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska at 07Z. A diffuse
nearly stationary front was analyzed from southwest iowa into
southwest Kansas while a cold front was located from Minnesota into
southwest Nebraska.

Scattered convection across central Nebraska into northwest Kansas
will continue to move east southeast and are expected to weaken as
they move into north central and central Kansas. Additional
convection is expected from areas south of I-35 through Sunrise
where 1000-925 mb frontogenesis was located at 07Z. Could see some
morning convection across the northern counties this morning as
well. Later this afternoon the "cold" front is forecast to be in
south central and southeast Kansas. The placement of the front will
be the main concern for areas south of I-35 this afternoon and
evening, especially if the front is slower than forecast with a more
southerly placement. This would increase the chances for strong to a
few severe storms developing along the front. Temperatures today
will be cooler behind the front with highs in the 80s expected.

Tonight, additional storms are expected to develop in the western
high Plains in an area of upslope flow. The convection is forecast
to move slowly east-southeast within the 850-300mb thickness and
within the moisture and instability axis that transitions from
western into central Kansas by Sunday morning. Have maintained
morning precipitation chances Sunday for decaying storms.

The upper ridge builds northward Sunday night and Monday. Elevated
storms are forecast Sunday night within the low level jet and
associated moisture and instability axis. The heat builds back on
Monday as well as a return of higher humidity. Highs top out in the
mid to upper 90s in north central and central Kansas, with 80s
further east. Heat indices approach 105 degrees in central Kansas on
Monday.

The heat and humidity increases Tuesday with a thermal axis
extending across northeast Kansas. Highs will be in the 90s to low
100s with heat indices around 105. The highest rain chances (60-70%)
are expected Tuesday night as a mid level trough moves across the
central Plains and a cold front moves southeast and then stalls in
northern Kansas by Wednesday morning. Increasing low level jet and
moisture transport into northern Kansas will increase the potential
for locally heavy rainfall. Periodic storm chances are expected
Wednesday through Friday with seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a low
end (less than 15%) chance of tsra through 15Z at TOP and FOE.
Winds become north-northeast through 15Z under 10kts, then
increase to around 10kts after 15Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53