909
FXUS63 KTOP 172332
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
632 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday.

- Temperatures remain above normal through Friday.

- The best chance for rain is expected Saturday and Sunday.
  Parts of the forecast area could see around a half to over
  one inch of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

At 19Z, a mid level trough was located over centered over
northern Utah and extending southeast into Colorado and New
Mexico. Southerly winds continue to maintain dew points in the
mid 60s across central and eastern Kansas this afternoon.

A shortwave lifting northward tonight into early Wednesday will keep
the potential for convection in north central Kansas overnight into
Wednesday morning. Shear is forecast to remain less than 30kts with
elevated instability of 900-1200 J/kg. Thus severe potential will be
low tonight. On Wednesday afternoon, clearing will allow for
temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. The
boundary layer is forecast to recover in the late afternoon hours to
around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and shear less than 30kts. Downdraft CAPE
of 1000-1400 J/kg would lead to some isolated strong wind gusts from
the stronger storms during the late afternoon into the early evening
hours. One limiting factor for late Wednesday will the lack of
forcing or lift, severe threat will be conditional on storm
development.

Morning convection may linger into Thursday morning before
dissipating. Minor shortwave ridging over Kansas should keep much of
the area dry until later in the afternoon hours. For Thursday
afternoon the boundary layer destabilizes with CAPE around 1500-2000
J/kg, shear however is less than 30kts. Forecast soundings in
northeast Kansas show inverted V soundings with downdraft CAPE of
1700 J/kg by late afternoon. If storms are able to develop, strong
wind gusts will be the main hazard. Thursday the thermal axis
extends into northeast Kansas and mixing down from 700mb would yield
highs in the low to mid 90s.

The next chance for convection will be Friday into the weekend as
the upper trough in the west progresses toward the Plains, the low
level jet will increase as well as moisture transport into Kansas. A
boundary may be present which will focus nocturnal convection with
the potential for locally heavy rainfall mainly in north central and
northeast Kansas Friday night into Saturday, then across much of the
area Saturday night through Sunday as the upper trough ejects out
into the Plains. Models diverge a bit on Sunday with the progression
of the trough as well as its location in the central Plains. Thus
lower confidence in the precipitation forecast Sunday night into
Monday. A frontal boundary moving southward on Sunday will bring
cooler temperatures in the 70s to the area lasting into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to dominate. The main concern is
the potential for weak convection to make its way east into the
area in the 10Z to 17Z period. MHK has the most potential for
this but confidence is too low for a mention. Impacts would
likely be quite low if it would occur. Have included some gusts
in the late period with deep mixing again anticipated.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Record high temperature data for September 19:

           Record maximum temperature   Forecast maximum temperature
Topeka           99, set in 2022                    95
Concordia       101, set in 2022                    91

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Poage
CLIMATE...Poage