468
FXUS64 KTSA 021521
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1021 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Another hot and humid day shaping up with heat headlines covering
the entire forecast area. Highest dew points remain concentrated
through eastern OK, although some lower values are present across
central OK. Given a modest veering in sfc winds some of this
"drier" air will push into far western areas, but that said
dangerous heat and humidity with max HI values in the 105 to 115
range still warrant maintaining headlines as they are.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Upper ridge will begin to shift slowly east on Wednesday. This
should allow a weak front to approach far northeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas during the day with a few scattered showers/thunderstorms
possible. Although deep layer shear will remain marginal, instability
could be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with locally
damaging winds. Hot and humid conditions will continue south of
frontal boundary with heat indices at or above 105 degrees across
much of the area.

A broad mid level trough with embedded low will shift into the
central/northern Plains on Thursday. Better shower/thunderstorm
chances are expected with this system Thursday eve into Thursday
night as cold front pushes through the region. A few of these
storms could also be strong to severe.

A significant break from the heat is expected on Friday behind front
with some lingering showers/thunderstorms across southeast
Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas during the day. In addition, temperatures
should stay near normal through the weekend into early next week
as a series of upper level waves traverse in stronger northwest
flow aloft. At least low precip chances also expected through this
period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

No significant changes were made from the previous aviation
forecast. VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF sites
today/tonight with a few/sct cumulus and high clouds through the
day. Southerly sfc winds will rapidly increase and become gusty by
14-15z/9-10 AM this morning. Frequent gusts between 20-25 knots
will be common at most terminal sites, occasionally higher at
times, through about 01-02z/8-9 PM this evening before subsiding
and becoming light and variable overnight tonight.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  80  99  80 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   99  80 100  80 /   0   0  10   0
MLC   98  79  99  79 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  100  76  96  75 /   0  20  20  30
FYV   96  77  98  75 /   0  10  20  10
BYV   96  77  98  74 /   0  10  30  20
MKO   97  77  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   97  77  94  76 /   0  20  30  30
F10   99  77  99  79 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   96  78  96  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...67