Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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918 FXUS64 KTSA 130753 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 253 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies and increasing southerly winds. Cold front extending from central MO through western KS by early evening will be a focus for storm development. These storms will spread east and south through the evening and may move into areas near the OK/KS border as they steadily weaken. Confidence remains low in both coverage and southward extent of any storms and most areas are likely to remain dry through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The cold front / thunderstorm outflow boundary will likely slide into portions of NE OK / far NW AR on Friday before steadily losing definition. The boundary will likely pool a corridor of higher dewpoints and resultant higher afternoon heat index readings. Additionally, isolated storms are possible along the boundary but, again, confidence remains low in both storm development and overall coverage. Shortwave trough passes across the central CONUS late Saturday into early Sunday. The majority of storms associated with this feature are expected to be north of local region with a low chance extending across northeast OK. Upper ridge centers over the SE CONUS by Monday with strengthening southerly flow on its periphery drawing deeper moisture northward into the region. Isolated to scattered afternoon storms are expected both Monday and Tuesday and primarily across far E OK / NW AR. High temps will cool a few degrees from previous days but remain above mid June normals. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Overnight tonight mostly clear skies and light winds will remain common across the CWA. During the day Thursday few to scattered mid and high clouds are forecast with winds becoming south to southwesterly. High clouds look to increase across the northern half of the CWA Thursday evening in response to potential convective development along a frontal boundary in Kansas. At this time any precip should remain north/northwest of Eastern Oklahoma TAF sites. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 94 71 95 72 / 0 0 10 10 FSM 93 70 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 91 68 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 93 68 94 69 / 0 20 10 10 FYV 91 66 93 70 / 0 0 10 10 BYV 91 67 92 70 / 0 20 20 20 MKO 91 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 91 69 91 70 / 0 20 20 20 F10 91 68 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 89 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20