258
FXUS64 KTSA 201534
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1034 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Mid-level heights will be rising over the region today as the
ridge center that has been situated over the eastern CONUS
flattens and shifts west in our direction. A ridge in the upper
levels centered over southern TX will continue to throw high
clouds up over us from the outflow of Alberto down in Mexico. A
deep-layer moist axis extends northeast from the storm up across
TX and into OK, with drier air over a deep layer working into our
area from the east. Will maintain low PoPs for showers across
portions of eastern OK thru the afternoon. Expect increasing lower
cloud coverage thru the day as the BL warms. Used a blend of
higher CONShort and NBM for cloud cover. Temps will remain just
slightly above average for this time of year.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Overall, conditions expected today should be similar to those of
the last few days, with afternoon temperatures running near
normal, lighter wind speeds like yesterday and potential for
widely scattered shower and thunderstorm afternoon development.
Areas along and south of I-40 and also northwest of I-44 remain
favored for the showers and thunderstorms, and slight chance POPs
have been added to the NBM initialization to cover this potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper level high pressure over the eastern United States will
continue to shift westward late this week and into the weekend,
which should lead to decreasing cloud cover, even less potential
for showers and thunderstorms and a marked increase in the heat
and heat stress potential. Expect afternoon temperatures around 10
degrees above normal in a few spots and triple digit heat index
values by Saturday.

With the center of the high shifting west of the area late in the
weekend and early next week, shower and thunderstorm chances
should go up accordingly. Much like yesterday, the NBM POPs and
Sky cover have been adjusted upward, especially across northern
parts of the area Sunday night/Monday morning and again, Monday
night/Tuesday morning. With the high not directly overhead, an
expectation of higher moisture from Sunday on and potential for
cloud cover and convective impacts, afternoon highs have been
adjusted downward from the NBM initialization closer to the NBM
50th percentile, which reflect values closer to traditional MOS
guidance. Still, the combination of afternoon temperatures and
expected higher dew points remains likely to lead to widespread
heat index values above 105 and the need for heat headlines from
Sunday on. Keep this in mind if you have outdoor recreation or
work plans.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Scattered low clouds in the 2.5-5 kft layer will develop this
morning. A few areas may see ceilings develop down to 5-6 kft,
with the most likely being KMLC and KFSM. Few to sct clouds will
persist in the 4-6 kft layer through the afternoon. High clouds at
or above 15 kft will also thicken up during the afternoon and
evening. Winds will be mostly light and out of the southeast. A
few stray afternoon showers or storms may develop (10-30% chance)
with gusty outflow winds being the main impact. If confidence
increases, a mention of showers or storms will be added to the
TAFs in future updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  74  94  74 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   92  72  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   88  70  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   91  71  94  70 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   89  68  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   88  67  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   88  72  92  71 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   88  72  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
F10   87  71  92  70 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   88  70  92  70 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06