089
FXUS64 KTSA 170851
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
351 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Areas of dense fog have developed in Carroll county Arkansas and
may spread into parts of Madison county early this morning. Thus
have issued a dense fog advisory for those two counties until 9
am. Once the fog and low clouds burn off, sunshine will return,
allowing afternoon high temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to
near 90 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A warming trend will take place during the rest of the work week,
with unseasonably warm temperatures expected by Thursday and
Friday as an upper ridge builds over the area. Afternoon high
temperatures may approach the century mark in parts of northeast
Oklahoma, with all locations warming well into the 90s. Shower and
thunderstorm chances look to remain west of our area through
Friday.

By the weekend, an upper trough to the west will begin to break
down the upper ridge, and low rain chances may return to the
northern part of the forecast area. The upper trough looks to move
into the central plains by late in the weekend, allowing a cold
front to at least approach the area by Sunday night. The ECMWF is
now more aggressive than the GFS with the southern push of this
boundary and resultant cooler temperatures early next week, which
is a flip flop from recent days. For now, will stick close to the
NBM showing a much more modest cooldown early next week. More
significant rain chances may eventually develop later next week,
but this too is highly uncertain and beyond the range of this
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Scattered to broken MVFR/low-end VFR ceilings ongoing across
across parts of Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas are
expected to continue overnight into Tuesday morning. At the same
time...light easterly winds and few/scattered MVFR/low-end VFR
ceilings in far Northwest Arkansas could lead to patchy/areas of
reduced visibility late tonight into Tuesday morning. Thus will
continue with tempo groups for timing of fog potential at
KXNA/KROG/KFYV. Across Northeast Oklahoma...mostly clear to few
MVFR ceilings are forecast tonight into Tuesday morning. During
the day Tuesday...LIFR to MVFR conditions in Southeast Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas and MVFR/low-end VFR ceilings in Northeast
Oklahoma should all become scattered to broken VFR by early
afternoon. Diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate by early
evening with few/scattered high clouds Tuesday night. Winds
through the period should remain east to southeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  68  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   88  68  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   90  64  92  69 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   85  61  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   85  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   86  66  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   88  65  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
F10   86  65  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   85  67  91  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ002-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20