442
FXUS64 KTSA 200639
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
139 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Overall, conditions expected today should be similar to those of
the last few days, with afternoon temperatures running near
normal, lighter wind speeds like yesterday and potential for
widely scattered shower and thunderstorm afternoon development.
Areas along and south of I-40 and also northwest of I-44 remain
favored for the showers and thunderstorms, and slight chance POPs
have been added to the NBM initialization to cover this potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper level high pressure over the eastern United States will
continue to shift westward late this week and into the weekend,
which should lead to decreasing cloud cover, even less potential
for showers and thunderstorms and a marked increase in the heat
and heat stress potential. Expect afternoon temperatures around 10
degrees above normal in a few spots and triple digit heat index
values by Saturday.

With the center of the high shifting west of the area late in the
weekend and early next week, shower and thunderstorm chances
should go up accordingly. Much like yesterday, the NBM POPs and
Sky cover have been adjusted upward, especially across northern
parts of the area Sunday night/Monday morning and again, Monday
night/Tuesday morning. With the high not directly overhead, an
expectation of higher moisture from Sunday on and potential for
cloud cover and convective impacts, afternoon highs have been
adjusted downward from the NBM initialization closer to the NBM
50th percentile, which reflect values closer to traditional MOS
guidance. Still, the combination of afternoon temperatures and
expected higher dew points remains likely to lead to widespread
heat index values above 105 and the need for heat headlines from
Sunday on. Keep this in mind if you have outdoor recreation or
work plans.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Scattered
clouds, mostly in the 3-6 kft layer are expected to develop
tonight, persisting through the day Thursday. Scattered high
clouds are also expected. Winds will be light and mostly out of
the southeast. A few very isolated showers or storms could develop
Thursday afternoon, but the probability of impacting a terminal is
20 percent or less. If a storm did develop near a terminal, the
main impact would be from gusty outflow winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  74  94  74 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   93  72  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   88  70  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   91  71  94  70 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   90  68  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   89  67  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   89  72  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   89  72  92  71 /   0  10   0   0
F10   88  71  92  70 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   89  70  92  70 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06