Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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921 FXUS64 KTSA 241909 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 209 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Late Afternoon into Tonight) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Have upgraded portions of northeast Oklahoma to an excessive heat warning from the heat advisory through 9 pm this evening. Heat index values of 110 to 112 will be possible within this area. Another toasty night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with temperatures bottoming out in the mid 70s to lower 80s area-wide. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Have expanded the heat advisory to include the entire CWA on Tuesday with heat index values expected to be in the 105 to 110 degree range during the afternoon. The chances of showers/storms ramp up Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper level ridge retrogrades enough to the west to allow a brief window of northwesterly flow aloft. A mid level shortwave embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft will aid in thunderstorm development during this time as will an associated weak surface boundary. A few of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail the concern. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the forecast period as the upper level ridge builds back over the area. Low chances of showers/storms are still possible across northern portions of the area over the weekend as a weak frontal boundary attempts to push in from the north. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Southerly sfc winds will occasionally gust between 15-20 kts through the afternoon, especially at the NE OK terminals. A pop-up shower/storm or two may occur later this afternoon, specifically across far NW AR, but convective chances are too low to include in TAFs. Otherwise, FEW to SCT mid/high clouds expected through the period. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 100 76 97 / 0 10 30 20 FSM 78 100 77 97 / 10 10 10 40 MLC 77 98 75 97 / 0 10 10 20 BVO 77 100 72 96 / 0 10 40 10 FYV 75 97 72 93 / 10 10 20 50 BYV 75 97 72 89 / 10 20 30 60 MKO 78 97 75 94 / 0 10 20 30 MIO 76 97 72 91 / 0 10 40 30 F10 76 98 74 95 / 0 10 20 20 HHW 76 96 77 95 / 0 0 10 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-054-059- 063>065-068-069-073-075. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053>076. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...67