763
FXUS64 KTSA 240217
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
917 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 911 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Heat Index values continue to slowly fall, though a few still are
right around the century mark at 9 PM. Today`s advisory has
expired accordingly. Have also removed any mention of thunderstorms
for this evening. More dangerously hot and humid weather Monday
with headlines covering all of eastern OK and western AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The heat intensifies on Monday, with afternoon heat indices
expected to climb into the 105 to 111 degree range. The lower Ark
River valley of west-central Arkansas, including FSM, could see
heat warning criteria. Therefore, have issued an Excessive Heat
Watch there, and Heat Advisories elsewhere. After what looks like
another day of heat headlines Tuesday, the mid-level ridge will
shift far enough west, at least briefly, to allow for increased
storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. If an MCS were to
organize and plow south across the area, it would provide some
relief from the heat, with the caveat that it could bring some
spotty damaging wind also. After storm chances on Wednesday with a
weak front, the ridge aloft will rebuild east back overhead for
the latter part of the week. Storm chances will return by the
weekend as another boundary approaches from the north in a less
amplified upper flow pattern across the CONUS.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Light and variable winds overnight, becoming light from the south
into the day Monday. VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period with only scattered, mainly high clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79 101  81  99 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   78 100  78  99 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   76  97  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   72 101  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   70  98  72  96 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   72  99  74  96 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   77  98  77  97 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   74  99  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
F10   76  97  76  97 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   76  96  76  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12