069
FXUS64 KTSA 240850
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
350 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Mid and upper level cloudiness will be on the increase today as an
upper level disturbance approaches from the north. A few showers
and thunderstorms may begin to move into the western parts of the
area by late afternoon, but most precipitation will hold off until
closer to sunset. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range
from the mid 70s to the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous this
evening, with the greatest coverage of precipitation and best
chance of storms remaining across the western and southern parts
of the forecast area. Precipitation will be ending from north to
south during the overnight hours.

A closed upper low is forecast to become cut off just to our east
late this week into early next week. Moisture wrapping around this
low will bring rain chances back to the area late Thursday and
especially Friday, with the greatest chances in the eastern part
of the forecast area. Rain chances will then linger into the
weekend across at least far eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through
much of the forecast period as the upper low sits and spins just
to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For eastern OK, conditions are currently mostly clear but areas of
fog will develop as the night progresses. Similarly, for
northwest and west-central AR, low ceilings are in place in the
1-3 kft range. These clouds will move east with time, but as they
do so fog will also develop. Many terminals are expected to see
visibility reductions down to 1/2 to 2 miles overnight. During
the day Tuesday clouds will thicken and lower, with ceilings down
to about 6-7 kft during the evening hours. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms (10-20% chance) are possible, with the best
chance of thunder near KMLC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  81  56 /  20  30   0   0
FSM   83  61  82  59 /  10  40  10   0
MLC   84  58  82  54 /  10  60   0   0
BVO   78  51  81  51 /  10  20   0   0
FYV   78  52  78  50 /  10  30  10   0
BYV   77  54  78  54 /  10  20  10   0
MKO   81  56  81  55 /  10  40   0   0
MIO   76  52  78  51 /  10  20   0   0
F10   82  56  81  53 /  10  40   0   0
HHW   87  62  81  56 /   0  70  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>071.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06