Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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206 FXUS64 KTSA 230532 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1232 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 916 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 True cold front entering NE OK this evening, though at this time most of the precip is associated with an outflow boundary further south. Main updates will be for PoPs- with focus through 06z on latest trends which will keep highest PoPs over east central Oklahoma. After 06z, several model solutions continue with additional development back to the north as a little bit of elevated instability coincides with the 850mb boundary. Coverage is a bit uncertain, especially in the 09z-12z period, so have opted to trim back from categorical PoPs with this update. Will also keep thunder mention to just chance. Overnight low temperatures look reasonable as they reflect cooler air infiltrating the region overnight. Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Monday morning across much of the forecast area. Precipitation chances will gradually end west-to-east through the day, with chances exiting the area by mid-late evening. Rain and cloud cover will keep daytime temperatures very cool on Monday, with widespread highs generally in the 70s. More sunshine and drier weather will warm daytime temperatures up into the mid-upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday, remaining below seasonal average. Likewise, overnight lows will be near or a few degrees below seasonal average through the long term. Models and ensembles continue to indicate a secondary upper-level trough/cut-off low developing and digging south over the Southern Plains (OK/AR region) late Tuesday-Wednesday which will likely produce additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, there is still high uncertainty with regards to timing and evolution of this upper-level feature in the global models and ensembles. To make matters more complicated, models also want to develop a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, tracking northward and making landfall somewhere in the northern Gulf coast by late week. This potential tropical system may also dictate how the upper-level low tracks and potentially may ingest an abundance of tropical moisture, affecting/influencing precipitation chances by the end of the week and into next week. Better details to come in later forecasts. Mejia && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Corridor of showers and storm currently aligns near the slow moving cold front and this trend will continue into the overnight hours with a slow south and eastward progress. Additional showers and a few storms are expected to develop north of the front across portions of NE OK and eventually NW AR with this precip continuing into the day Monday. Additionally, low clouds with low MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to spread south in wake of the front and persist through much of the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 58 78 57 78 / 10 10 40 10 FSM 63 83 61 80 / 10 10 40 20 MLC 58 85 58 81 / 0 10 50 20 BVO 52 78 52 80 / 10 20 20 10 FYV 58 78 55 76 / 20 10 30 30 BYV 59 76 55 75 / 30 10 30 30 MKO 56 79 57 78 / 10 10 40 20 MIO 56 76 53 77 / 20 10 20 10 F10 55 81 55 79 / 0 10 40 10 HHW 60 86 60 82 / 10 10 40 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...07