Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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257 FXUS64 KTSA 181850 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 150 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Breezy southerly winds this afternoon should gradually lessen into the late afternoon and evening while the surface gradient weakens as a surface low and associated frontal boundary draped across central/western Kansas shifts back westward this evening. Cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures down this afternoon though increasing moisture still makes it feel a little sticky out there. A few isolated showers remain possible across western Arkansas as increasing tropical moisture interacts with the terrain during the heat of the day. Any showers that due make it into western Arkansas should diminish toward sunset with the loss of peak heating. Looking toward tonight, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the aforementioned frontal boundary across central Kansas and move eastward into the overnight hours. Weakening shear with eastward extent along with increasing mid level capping will likely allow storms to become more disorganized the further south and east they travel and are forecast to dissipate before reaching northeast Oklahoma late tonight. A lingering shower could clip parts of northeast Oklahoma but any organized storm potential appears unlikely at this time tonight. Otherwise, it will be another warm night with lows mainly in the 70s areawide as winds and cloud cover should limit overall cooling overnight. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A couple of isolated showers will be possible across northeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning within a zone of weak isentropic ascent which will quickly weaken by mid morning. A more focused area of isolated shower/storm chances will become possible by afternoon across northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma as deep tropical moisture associated with potential tropical cyclone one in the Bay of Campeche spreads northward. A narrow axis of increased isentropic ascent associated with this moisture surge along with the diurnal heating Wednesday afternoon, should be enough for isolated to widely scattered shower development first across western Arkansas and spreading northwestward throughout the afternoon. Some elevated instability present will allow for some slight thunder chances with any thunderstorms producing gusty winds and heavy, tropical downpours. Severe weather is not expected at this point. The cloud cover and rain chances will once again help keep temperatures down somewhat tomorrow afternoon as well. The upper ridge to the northeast then begins to build back into the Southern Plains for the latter half of the workweek and especially this weekend. the result will be hot and humid conditions with very little in the way of rain chances through Sunday. Ensemble guidance does continue to indicate that the ridge will continue shifting westward into next week, becoming planted over the Desert Southwest. This will place the region under northwest flow aloft which should bring daily thunderstorm chances along with slightly cooler temperatures heading into the middle of next week. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. MVFR cigs earlier this morning have lifted to VFR, and should gradually scatter out toward 00Z and later. Chances for showers and storms too low to mention in the TAFs. Tonight, some mid cloud is expected across NE OK, with increasing high cloud across the southeast. Toward midday on Wednesday, expect an increase in cu, with sct to bkn coverage at 3 to 5kft. Chances for a shower or storm, if any, would hold off until aft the scope of this forecast. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 92 72 91 / 0 20 0 0 FSM 73 89 72 93 / 0 20 0 0 MLC 72 89 71 90 / 0 10 0 10 BVO 72 92 69 91 / 10 20 0 0 FYV 70 89 67 91 / 0 20 0 0 BYV 68 88 67 89 / 0 20 0 0 MKO 72 89 72 90 / 0 20 0 0 MIO 71 90 69 90 / 0 20 0 0 F10 71 89 70 89 / 0 20 0 10 HHW 71 86 72 89 / 10 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...30