Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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025 FXUS64 KTSA 250517 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1217 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across northeast Oklahoma just south Hwy 412. Storms have become severe at times over the last couple of hours, with large hail and damaging wind threats. The airmass south of current activity is characterized by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, mid level lapse rates between 6-7 C/km, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40-50 kts. While this environment will become less favorable with time, suspect ongoing storms should be able to maintain strength for awhile as they move southward into SE OK late this evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will continue to be the main hazards associated with these storms, as well as locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 11 PM. Rain should become increasingly confined to southeast Oklahoma early tonight before moving out of the FA completely late overnight/ early tomorrow morning. In its wake, skies are expected to clear with increasing potential for fog development, especially across NE OK & NW AR where it may become locally dense. Added mention of patchy fog for much of NE OK and portions of NW AR late tonight into tomorrow morning. While fog may also develop across parts of SE OK, lingering cloudiness & precip may tend to limit fog potential here. Otherwise, expect quiet conditions tonight behind the ongoing storms with light winds and lows generally in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon/early evening across north-central Oklahoma in the vicinity of weak surface boundary and associated low pressure system. This activity is forecast to spread into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the evening hours as a mid-level shortwave currently over southwest Kansas swoops through the area. There is the potential that a few of the storms could be strong to severe this evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma, mainly to the south of Highway 412 and west of Highway 75. Large hail to the size of golf balls is the main concern. Overall, the shower and storm activity is expected to move out of the area late tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Wednesday into Thursday are expected to remain mostly dry as a cutoff upper level takes shape over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and storm chances increase Thursday night into Friday as moisture associated with Helene is incorporated into the cutoff low as it wobbles east of the area. The highest probabilities of shower/storms are forecast across western Arkansas as are the highest rainfall amounts. The upper level low will finally begin to move off to the northeast over the weekend with dry weather forecast for much of the area. Temperatures look to be near normal for this time of year during this time-frame. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Skies are becoming clear from northwest to southeast, and this should continue the next few hours. With recent rainfall, this may promote localized fog at some terminals. Most likely KRVS and KMLC will be most susceptible. For now, lowered forecast visibility to 1-2SM for most terminals, but locally lower visibility is certainly possible. Skies will be clear Monday mid morning onwards with northerly winds of mostly 5-10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 82 59 82 62 / 0 0 10 20 MLC 81 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 81 51 82 54 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 79 51 78 56 / 0 0 20 30 BYV 78 51 77 56 / 0 0 20 30 MKO 79 55 79 56 / 0 0 10 10 MIO 79 50 78 55 / 0 0 10 10 F10 80 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 81 56 82 59 / 10 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...06