Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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933 FXUS64 KTSA 200722 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 222 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Today will be another hot and mostly sunny day for many areas. 850- 500 hPa temps will remain near the 99th percentile for this time of year with southerly wind continuing to advect warm and humid air into the area. Meanwhile, modest rains in some areas yesterday will result in locally elevated dew points. Overall, this should result in temperatures and dew points that are similar to what was observed yesterday, with afternoon heat indices reaching or exceeding 105 F in several areas. A Heat Advisory has been issued for much of eastern OK and west-central AR. The other weather story today will be a slight chance of storms once again this afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-40. A weak remnant west-east surface boundary will remain near the OK-KS and OK- MO borders. With sufficient instability, marginal wind shear, and a transient upper level feature, a few storms may form. Overall the coverage is expected to be minimal with a minimal severe weather threat. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Over the next several days the strong ridge of high pressure that has been centered over and south of the area will begin to weaken and shift south in response to an approaching upper level trough from the west. In spite of upper level cooling, the lower levels will remain quite hot, with high temperatures once again in the mid 90s to near 100 F. As the previously mentioned trough approaches, a few late afternoon or evening storms may develop Saturday, with the best chance in northwest AR. Some cooling will likely begin Sunday with more extensive cloud cover. Additionally, an upper level jet streak will increase mid level flow, wind shear, and upper level divergence. These factors, along with sufficient instability, will likely result in a round of showers and thunderstorms along a frontal boundary. There is a marginal risk (5% chance) that a few of the storms could be severe. This will be the best and most widespread chance of precipitation for most areas during the forecast period, with Pops of 40-60% most areas. A few areas of locally heavy rainfall could result in minor flash flooding, but recent dry conditions will mostly limit that threat. Model guidance remains in good agreement for Monday, with much cooler temperatures moving into the area. Most areas will remain in the 70s with relatively dry conditions developing from northwest to southeast during the day. The forecast becomes much more uncertain for the middle to end of next week. Ensemble guidance does agree that behind the previously mentioned trough, a secondary upper level trough will dive south. However, model guidance is very inconsistent with this feature. Some guidance merges the two upper lows and they stay over the area with very cool and showery conditions, while other guidance moves the new upper low to the east leaving us cool but mostly dry. Still other guidance takes the initial low east while the follow on low goes west and a ridge builds over the area. Suffice it to say, the spread of possible outcomes is very high for next week. Guidance is roughly evenly split between these generalized outcomes, so no particular solution is favored at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Any showers and storms late Friday afternoon and evening are expected to remain too isolated to include in the TAF`s at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 77 98 75 / 10 20 20 20 FSM 98 76 97 75 / 10 10 20 10 MLC 99 74 98 73 / 10 0 0 10 BVO 100 73 99 70 / 20 20 20 30 FYV 95 73 92 70 / 20 20 30 20 BYV 95 73 92 71 / 20 20 40 20 MKO 97 76 96 74 / 10 10 20 10 MIO 97 74 96 71 / 20 20 20 30 F10 99 74 98 73 / 10 10 20 10 HHW 98 73 96 72 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>068-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...05