Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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903 FXUS64 KTSA 161023 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 523 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A weak upper level trough is moving through the area, but the lower atmosphere is generally too stable and dry to promote a risk of more than a few isolated showers or storms across the area. Even so, recent radar scans indicate a few light showers in portions of central and northern OK into KS. These showers will mostly stay out of the CWA, but an isolated rain shower or rumble of thunder is possible for northeast OK. Temperatures will remain mild for the remainder of the overnight hours, generally in the 70s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. For the daytime hours today, it looks like another hot one. High temperatures will be about the same as yesterday, mostly in the lower 90s with continued humid conditions. There will be about a 10% chance of a pop up storm across the higher terrain of southeast OK and northwest AR, so any storms that do occur will be few and far between. Southerly winds will remain breezy today, gusting to 15-25 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The pattern will realign Monday through Wednesday as a powerful upper level ridge builds across the northeast with a deep western trough and a possibly tropical low entering into southern Texas. With lowering upper level heights across the area, high temperatures will slip a bit Monday and Tuesday, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. Due to unusually low pressure to the north, a stiff southerly wind will develop for this period, with gusts of 25-35 mph expected. The gusty southerly winds will continue to advect moisture into the area, keeping dew points elevated. Any shower or thunderstorm activity will be limited to the higher terrain during the afternoon hours given limited forcing. A a low with deep tropical moisture will move into Texas Wednesday, moving northwestward but mostly staying west of the forecast area. A small subset of guidance (20% or so) moves it close enough to the area that a few showers or storms could pop up Wednesday to Thursday, so steered the forecast to account for this. The threat of storms during this period will mostly be confined to eastern OK. Ensemble guidance favors a strong high moving back over the area towards the end of the week, with temperatures warming and the chance of rain mostly below 10%. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions remain expected through the period at all terminals, along with gusty southerly winds from late morning through sunset everywhere except FSM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 94 75 93 75 / 0 0 10 0 FSM 96 75 93 75 / 10 10 20 0 MLC 93 74 91 74 / 0 0 10 0 BVO 93 72 93 74 / 0 0 10 0 FYV 92 72 89 72 / 10 10 20 0 BYV 92 72 90 71 / 10 10 20 0 MKO 92 74 91 74 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 91 73 91 74 / 10 0 10 0 F10 92 72 90 73 / 0 0 10 0 HHW 92 73 89 72 / 0 0 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...22