045
FXUS64 KTSA 151527
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1027 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Current forecast looks in good shape going into the afternoon
850 mb temps a little cooler than those observed 24 hours
ago, which may result in afternoon max temps a degree or so less
than yesterday. Dewpoint trends overall suggest they will mix
out heading into the afternoon, and available guidance supports
this. That said, max HI values should remain below advisory criteria
today so do not plan on issuing one at this time. Remaining first
period elements are in line as well, so no update is planned at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The upper level high will shift eastwards Sunday through Tuesday,
settling into the northeast US. Meanwhile a broad and deep trough
will settle into the western US, with an inverted trough moving
westward over southern Texas. Upper level heights and
temperatures will lower as a result of this pattern
reconfiguration across the CWA, implying a slight cooling trend
into early next week. Additionally, cyclogenesis in the northern
Plains will induce gusty southerly winds across the area for
several days. Max wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected. These
winds will keep dew points elevated due to enhanced moisture
advection. With slightly lower temperatures, but still elevated
moisture levels, heat indices will continue to approach 95-100F
each day. Rain chances will mostly remain minimal through Tuesday,
though a few high terrain showers or storms could occur in
southeast OK or northwest AR.

By next Wednesday, and continuing into the weekend, upper level
heights will rebuild over the area with any fronts remaining well to
the north. This should imply an increasing temperature trend, with
highs back into the mid 90s for many areas. However, with continued
moisture advection from the south, a few diurnal showers or storms
could still occur, especially Wednesday. But overall the hot and
mostly dry weather pattern we`ve seen of late looks to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Expect VFR conditions to prevail at the terminals, with any
localized visibility reductions due to light fog likely to be
short-lived past sunrise. A very low chance of thunderstorm
impacts this afternoon and into early evening will exist at the
far NW AR sites, with potential not high enough to mention in the
TAFs for now. Gusty southerly winds this afternoon should remain
isolated to the NE OK terminals, with speeds elsewhere remaining
below 10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  94  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   75  97  74  94 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   73  94  73  92 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   72  94  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   71  93  69  89 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   71  93  71  89 /  10  10   0  20
MKO   73  93  72  92 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   73  93  73  92 /  10   0   0  10
F10   72  92  72  91 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   72  94  73  89 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22