535
FXUS64 KTSA 151903
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Hot and humid weather continues this afternoon across much of the
area. A few locations in the Arkansas River Valley, including
portions of far northeast Oklahoma should see heat indices top out
in the 101-103 deg range. Further west, dewpoints are running
several degrees lower compared to yesterday.

A few isolated showers/thunderstorms could still develop in the
higher terrain over far northwest Arkansas this afternoon, however
coverage will likely remain very limited and more focused just north
of area. It also appears that any storms that develop out west will
likely begin to weaken before moving into northeast Oklahoma
tonight. Otherwise, mild conditions will persist overnight with
light south winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal Sunday and
again Monday. As upper high shifts over the Eastern Seaboard, a weak
mid level impulse will lift north with low level Gulf moisture slowly
increasing through mid week. This may allow isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon with peak heating.

Warming trend returns Friday into Saturday as upper ridging builds
back into the southern Plains. Rain chances should remain very low
to nil as easterly low level flow advects a drier air-mass into
the region with PWATs decreasing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the
valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  74  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   97  74  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   94  73  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   94  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   93  70  92  72 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   92  70  92  72 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   92  72  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   92  72  92  72 /  10   0   0   0
F10   92  71  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   91  72  91  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...23