065
FXUS64 KTSA 181546
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1046 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Main update to the grids was to raise wind speeds/gusts across NE
OK with some area sites reporting gusts to near 40 mph this
morning. Guidance indicates that winds/gusts should trend lower
as the day wears on. This, combined with borderline and spotty
nature of advisory level gusts argues against headline issuance.
Increased cloud cover using CONSShort as current obs are
considerably higher than NBM (blended guidance) values. Nudged
forecast MaxT down slightly with the higher cloud cover forecast
as well. Text products have been sent. NBM PoPs looked reasonable,
with some low values in the east closer to the terrain.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Yet another seasonably hot and humid day is on tap across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas today, although
much like yesterday, continued breezy conditions should take the
edge off the heat to some degree. Low clouds currently expanding
across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas should persist into
mid morning before diminishing toward midday. Deeper moisture in
southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas could support another
day with isolated thunderstorm development, with the best chance
being during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For overall messaging purposes, the expectations for the rest of
the week, the weekend and into early next week remain the same,
with a relative minimum in afternoon temperatures mid week,
increasing temperatures for the weekend and low thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

Some uncertainty continues regarding how much of an impact the
tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico will have on the
forecast area - mainly in the form of increased cloud cover and
associated temperature reduction. There is a good chance that
spots in southeast Oklahoma stay in the 80s on Wednesday due to
this.

Toward the weekend, upper level high pressure looks to build into
the region, bringing above normal temperatures to the region.
Triple digit heat index values look probable, with some potential
for at least one day featuring heat indices supportive of heat
headlines. The more likely time period for headlines would be late
in the weekend and into early next week, as moisture increases in
association with a weakness in the upper level high that should
also lead to the low thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Areas of low ceilings in the 2-3 kft range have developed across
portions of northwest AR and eastern OK. In general, these low
ceilings will expand (at times) through late morning before
diminishing in the early afternoon. Scattered low clouds in the
3-5 kft range will then persist into the evening and overnight
hours. A few isolated showers may form over northwest AR and
southeast OK this afternoon, but with probability of precipitation
at or below 20 percent this was not included in the TAFs. Breezy
southerly winds will gust 20-30 kts today, diminishing to 10-15
kts tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  74  91  72 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   90  73  90  73 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   88  72  89  70 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   90  72  90  67 /   0  10  10   0
FYV   87  70  88  67 /  20  10  10   0
BYV   87  68  88  67 /  20  10  10   0
MKO   89  72  88  71 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   89  71  90  69 /   0  10  10   0
F10   88  71  88  69 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   87  71  86  72 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06