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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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170 FXUS64 KTSA 171106 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 606 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Heat and humidity continue today, with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures expected. A tight pressure gradient will keep gusty southerly winds in place during the afternoon, with the highest gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range. Increasing moisture across the eastern fringes of the forecast area along the western edge of the upper level high in the southeastern United States, could lead to a few isolated diurnal thunderstorms mainly across parts of northwest and west central Arkansas. Overall, though, expect dry weather to persist in most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Through roughly the middle part of this work week, the region should be squeezed between upper level troughing in the northern Rockies, upper level ridging in the east and a tropical low in the western Gulf of Mexico that should eventually move north to northwest across Mexico. The further north that the tropical system moves, the more impact it will have to parts of eastern Oklahoma toward mid week - including rain chances, increased cloud cover and lower temperatures. The more northern influence offered by the NAM appears to be a notable outlier at this point and will be largely discarded in favor of the drier and warmer remainder of the model suite and the NBM offering. Upper level high pressure will extend into the area once again toward the weekend, signaling a return to increasing heat and humidity. Through much of this period, opted to reduce forecast highs from the NBM initialization more toward MOS guidance and also to raise dew points some, leveraging the raw model consensus blend. Heat indices during this time frame will at least flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. A weakness in the upper level high late in the weekend and into early next week will lead to low shower and thunderstorm chances for mainly parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Skies will be mostly clear with dry conditions today, with just a few afternoon cumulus at around 5 kft. The one exception may be in northwest AR where a few very isolated showers may locally develop this afternoon. Mid and high clouds will begin to develop in the evening and overnight hours. Winds will be breezy today, with gusts of 15-25 kts for all terminals. Winds will remain elevated overnight tonight, but the gusts are expected to diminish. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 93 77 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 93 76 91 73 / 10 0 10 0 MLC 90 74 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 93 76 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 90 73 87 69 / 10 0 10 0 BYV 91 71 88 69 / 10 0 20 0 MKO 91 74 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 91 73 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 F10 90 73 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 88 73 89 70 / 10 0 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...06