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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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939 FXUS64 KTSA 190252 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 952 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A few showers have moved into the northwest corner of the forecast area, and have added low pops to the forecast there for the rest of the night. The main area of showers and storms to the northwest will not affect our area, but a few light showers may continue to fester overnight. The rest of the forecast is on track at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A couple of isolated showers will be possible across northeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning within a zone of weak isentropic ascent which will quickly weaken by mid morning. A more focused area of isolated shower/storm chances will become possible by afternoon across northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma as deep tropical moisture associated with potential tropical cyclone one in the Bay of Campeche spreads northward. A narrow axis of increased isentropic ascent associated with this moisture surge along with the diurnal heating Wednesday afternoon, should be enough for isolated to widely scattered shower development first across western Arkansas and spreading northwestward throughout the afternoon. Some elevated instability present will allow for some slight thunder chances with any thunderstorms producing gusty winds and heavy, tropical downpours. Severe weather is not expected at this point. The cloud cover and rain chances will once again help keep temperatures down somewhat tomorrow afternoon as well. The upper ridge to the northeast then begins to build back into the Southern Plains for the latter half of the workweek and especially this weekend. the result will be hot and humid conditions with very little in the way of rain chances through Sunday. Ensemble guidance does continue to indicate that the ridge will continue shifting westward into next week, becoming planted over the Desert Southwest. This will place the region under northwest flow aloft which should bring daily thunderstorm chances along with slightly cooler temperatures heading into the middle of next week. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 715 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period at all area sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 92 72 91 / 10 20 0 0 FSM 73 89 72 93 / 0 20 0 0 MLC 72 89 71 90 / 0 10 0 10 BVO 72 92 69 91 / 20 20 0 0 FYV 70 89 67 91 / 0 20 0 0 BYV 68 88 67 89 / 0 20 0 0 MKO 72 89 72 90 / 0 20 0 0 MIO 71 90 69 90 / 10 20 0 0 F10 71 89 70 89 / 0 20 0 10 HHW 71 86 72 89 / 0 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...10