075
FXUS64 KTSA 180641
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Yet another seasonably hot and humid day is on tap across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas today, although
much like yesterday, continued breezy conditions should take the
edge off the heat to some degree. Low clouds currently expanding
across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas should persist into
mid morning before diminishing toward midday. Deeper moisture in
southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas could support another
day with isolated thunderstorm development, with the best chance
being during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For overall messaging purposes, the expectations for the rest of
the week, the weekend and into early next week remain the same,
with a relative minimum in afternoon temperatures mid week,
increasing temperatures for the weekend and low thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

Some uncertainty continues regarding how much of an impact the
tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico will have on the
forecast area - mainly in the form of increased cloud cover and
associated temperature reduction. There is a good chance that
spots in southeast Oklahoma stay in the 80s on Wednesday due to
this.

Toward the weekend, upper level high pressure looks to build into
the region, bringing above normal temperatures to the region.
Triple digit heat index values look probable, with some potential
for at least one day featuring heat indices supportive of heat
headlines. The more likely time period for headlines would be late
in the weekend and into early next week, as moisture increases in
association with a weakness in the upper level high that should
also lead to the low thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Mostly clear conditions with breezy south winds are expected for
most areas for the remainder of tonight. One area of low clouds
has developed near KFYV, and could potentially persist and/or
expand into nearby terminals but confidence in this outcome is
low. However, low clouds will likely develop for the eastern OK
terminals Tuesday morning, with occasionally broken CIGs down to 3
kft or so. These clouds will thin and break up during the
afternoon. Most areas will be dry, but there is a 10-20% chance of
a shower during the afternoon hours for the northwest AR terminals.
Winds will remain breezy and out of the south through the day
Tuesday with gusts of 20-30 kts possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  74  91  72 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   91  73  90  73 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   90  72  89  70 /  10   0  10   0
BVO   90  72  90  67 /   0  10  10   0
FYV   87  70  88  67 /  20  10  10   0
BYV   88  68  88  67 /  20  10  10   0
MKO   89  72  88  71 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   90  71  90  69 /   0  10  10   0
F10   89  71  88  69 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   88  71  86  72 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06