257
FXUS64 KTSA 181850
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
150 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Breezy southerly winds this afternoon should gradually lessen
into the late afternoon and evening while the surface gradient
weakens as a surface low and associated frontal boundary draped
across central/western Kansas shifts back westward this evening.
Cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures down this afternoon
though increasing moisture still makes it feel a little sticky out
there. A few isolated showers remain possible across western
Arkansas as increasing tropical moisture interacts with the
terrain during the heat of the day. Any showers that due make it
into western Arkansas should diminish toward sunset with the loss
of peak heating. Looking toward tonight, a line of thunderstorms
is expected to develop along the aforementioned frontal boundary
across central Kansas and move eastward into the overnight hours.
Weakening shear with eastward extent along with increasing mid
level capping will likely allow storms to become more disorganized
the further south and east they travel and are forecast to
dissipate before reaching northeast Oklahoma late tonight. A
lingering shower could clip parts of northeast Oklahoma but any
organized storm potential appears unlikely at this time tonight.
Otherwise, it will be another warm night with lows mainly in the
70s areawide as winds and cloud cover should limit overall cooling
overnight.

Bowlan


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A couple of isolated showers will be possible across northeast
Oklahoma Wednesday morning within a zone of weak isentropic
ascent which will quickly weaken by mid morning. A more focused
area of isolated shower/storm chances will become possible by
afternoon across northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma as deep
tropical moisture associated with potential tropical cyclone one
in the Bay of Campeche spreads northward. A narrow axis of
increased isentropic ascent associated with this moisture surge
along with the diurnal heating Wednesday afternoon, should be
enough for isolated to widely scattered shower development first
across western Arkansas and spreading northwestward throughout the
afternoon. Some elevated instability present will allow for some
slight thunder chances with any thunderstorms producing gusty
winds and heavy, tropical downpours. Severe weather is not
expected at this point. The cloud cover and rain chances will once
again help keep temperatures down somewhat tomorrow afternoon as
well.

The upper ridge to the northeast then begins to build back into
the Southern Plains for the latter half of the workweek and
especially this weekend. the result will be hot and humid
conditions with very little in the way of rain chances through
Sunday. Ensemble guidance does continue to indicate that the
ridge will continue shifting westward into next week, becoming
planted over the Desert Southwest. This will place the region
under northwest flow aloft which should bring daily thunderstorm
chances along with slightly cooler temperatures heading into the
middle of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. MVFR cigs earlier
this morning have lifted to VFR, and should gradually scatter out
toward 00Z and later. Chances for showers and storms too low to
mention in the TAFs. Tonight, some mid cloud is expected across
NE OK, with increasing high cloud across the southeast. Toward
midday on Wednesday, expect an increase in cu, with sct to bkn
coverage at 3 to 5kft. Chances for a shower or storm, if any,
would hold off until aft the scope of this forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  92  72  91 /   0  20   0   0
FSM   73  89  72  93 /   0  20   0   0
MLC   72  89  71  90 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   72  92  69  91 /  10  20   0   0
FYV   70  89  67  91 /   0  20   0   0
BYV   68  88  67  89 /   0  20   0   0
MKO   72  89  72  90 /   0  20   0   0
MIO   71  90  69  90 /   0  20   0   0
F10   71  89  70  89 /   0  20   0  10
HHW   71  86  72  89 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30