Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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725 FXUS64 KTSA 221734 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Current short term forecast and discussion (below) remains valid and on track. The main two sensible weather storylines today will be the unseasonably warm temperatures and the breezy/gusty winds. Regional surface observations at 10 AM were already showing temperatures climbing into the mid-upper 80s, with heat indices around 90 degrees, and southwest winds gusting between 20-30 mph across northeast OK and far northwest AR. As upper-level ridging continues to build over the Plains today, mostly sunny skies will contribute to temperatures maxing out in the low-mid 90s, with temperatures flirting with triple digits in portions of western Pawnee and Osage counties. If planning to spend a prolonged period outdoors today, dress in light-colored clothing, drink plenty of water, and apply/re-apply sunscreen often. Mejia && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Upper ridge continues to expand back to west, resulting in a broad area of ridging that will be situated over the southern plains today. Surface low and attendant boundary to the north will result in a little bit stronger winds today, mainly across parts of northeast Oklahoma. Proximity of ridge will lead to warmer temperatures today. This, along with slightly higher dewpoints advecting into the area will increase impacts from heat related stress some. That said, maximum heat index values are expected to remain below 105 this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms along the aforementioned boundary may approach the KS/OK and MO/AR borders late tonight, but will not include a mention given the low coverage expected && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The heat will continue to build Sunday and into next week as the upper ridge continues shifting to the west and centering over the four corners region by Wednesday, thus placing the forecast area in NW flow. An upper wave within the flow will aid in pushing a boundary into parts of the area Wednesday, and will give much of the area the `best` chances for showers and storms within this forecast period. Beyond Wednesday, upper ridging somewhat re establishes over the southern plains for the remainder of the forecast period, so any locations that benefit from the slightly cooler conditions on Wednesday will be very brief. There is a non zero chance that over the weekend some shower/storm activity along the northern periphery of the ridge brushes parts of far NE OK, but will leave out any mention at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR anticipated to prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Breezy/gusty southwest winds will subside by or just after sunset this evening, with gusts 20-25 knots. A weak cold front will approach from the north overnight tonight or early Sunday morning. An isolated shower/storm or two cannot be ruled out along or near the OK/KS border in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, but chances are too low to include in TAFs. Winds will shift more WNW to N behind the boundary by sunrise at NE OK and far NW AR terminals. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 96 79 98 78 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 96 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 93 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 96 76 97 74 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 93 74 95 73 / 0 10 10 0 BYV 93 76 93 73 / 10 10 10 10 MKO 93 77 96 77 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 93 76 93 75 / 0 20 10 10 F10 93 76 97 76 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 92 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...67 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...67