Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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363 FXUS64 KTSA 250505 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1205 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 916 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Heat headlines for today have been allowed to expire as Heat Index values continue to slowly fall this evening, with most spots well below 100 degrees. Otherwise generally clear conditions overnight with very warm lows in the 70s to lower 80s. Forecast appears to be trending well. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Have expanded the heat advisory to include the entire CWA on Tuesday with heat index values expected to be in the 105 to 110 degree range during the afternoon. The chances of showers/storms ramp up Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper level ridge retrogrades enough to the west to allow a brief window of northwesterly flow aloft. A mid level shortwave embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft will aid in thunderstorm development during this time as will an associated weak surface boundary. A few of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail the concern. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the forecast period as the upper level ridge builds back over the area. Low chances of showers/storms are still possible across northern portions of the area over the weekend as a weak frontal boundary attempts to push in from the north. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Sfc wind gusts between 15z-00z of 20-25 kts at all sites except KFSM and KBVO. Otherwise, VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the valid period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 100 76 97 74 / 10 30 20 10 FSM 100 77 97 76 / 10 20 40 10 MLC 98 75 97 74 / 10 20 20 0 BVO 100 72 96 70 / 10 40 10 10 FYV 97 72 93 69 / 10 20 50 10 BYV 97 72 89 69 / 20 30 60 10 MKO 97 75 94 74 / 10 20 30 10 MIO 97 72 91 70 / 10 40 30 10 F10 98 74 95 72 / 10 20 20 10 HHW 96 77 95 74 / 0 20 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...23