Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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164 FXUS64 KTSA 210519 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 837 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A couple of renegade showers continue across southeast Oklahoma early this evening. This activity will dissipate over the next hour or so. Current forecast for tonight is on track with only a few adjustments made to better reflect current trends. && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Spotty showers will continue to impact parts of eastern Oklahoma through the afternoon before dying off early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. A couple rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, but the main concern will be for brief heavy downpours for those lucky enough to experience a shower overhead. Otherwise, warm and humid conditions will prevail under partly cloudy skies and light winds, making it feel rather muggy out there. Another mild night is in store, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Thursday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The upper ridge currently across the eastern CONUS is still on track to shift westward through the weekend and become centered over the Southern Plains by Saturday afternoon. The result will be increasing temperatures and decreasing rain chances through the weekend. Highs will once again be near normal in the lower to mid 90s tomorrow as mid level cloud cover associated with Alberto hangs around the area through midday. By Saturday however, temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 90s with some triple digit heat not out of the question across parts of eastern Oklahoma and into the Arkansas River Valley of western Arkansas. A mid level trough will then traverse the Northern Plains Saturday night into SUnday and may force a weakening boundary into far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early Sunday. At the least, this boundary should provide a little more cloud cover along with a low chance for a few showers/storms Sunday morning. This will likely keep temperatures down a few degrees across the eastern half of the forecast area on Sunday, while the rest of the area sees highs around 100 again on Sunday The boundary will quickly become washed out by Sunday evening and any rain chances look to be minimal under the influence of the upper ridge through Monday. By the middle of next week, guidance continues to indicate that the ridge will shift southwest and some modest mid level northerly flow aloft develops over the region. This will bring netter chances for more organized thunderstorm development, especially across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Increasing cloud cover and rain chances should also provide a slight cooldown to the heat through the rest of the period. Toward the latter part of next week a stronger trough is forecast to dive into the eastern CONUS and possibly bring a stronger frontal boundary into the region with below normal temps and more widespread rain chances associated with this system if it pans out. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period for all sites. Spotty MVFR conditions may develop briefly during the morning hours but any flight impacts should remain isolated and short- lived. Southerly sfc winds increase during the day, but generally remain below 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 92 74 96 78 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 94 73 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 91 70 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 92 70 96 75 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 91 68 93 73 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 91 69 92 73 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 91 70 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 90 71 92 75 / 0 0 0 20 F10 90 69 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 89 70 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...43