363
FXUS64 KTSA 250505
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1205 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Heat headlines for today have been allowed to expire as Heat Index
values continue to slowly fall this evening, with most spots well
below 100 degrees. Otherwise generally clear conditions overnight
with very warm lows in the 70s to lower 80s. Forecast appears to
be trending well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Have expanded the heat advisory to include the entire CWA on
Tuesday with heat index values expected to be in the 105 to 110
degree range during the afternoon.

The chances of showers/storms ramp up Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the upper level ridge retrogrades enough to the
west to allow a brief window of northwesterly flow aloft. A mid
level shortwave embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft will
aid in thunderstorm development during this time as will an associated
weak surface boundary. A few of these storms could be strong to
severe with damaging winds and large hail the concern.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
forecast period as the upper level ridge builds back over the
area. Low chances of showers/storms are still possible across
northern portions of the area over the weekend as a weak frontal
boundary attempts to push in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Sfc wind gusts between 15z-00z of 20-25 kts at all sites except
KFSM and KBVO. Otherwise, VFR TAF elements will prevail at
all sites through the valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  76  97  74 /  10  30  20  10
FSM  100  77  97  76 /  10  20  40  10
MLC   98  75  97  74 /  10  20  20   0
BVO  100  72  96  70 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   97  72  93  69 /  10  20  50  10
BYV   97  72  89  69 /  20  30  60  10
MKO   97  75  94  74 /  10  20  30  10
MIO   97  72  91  70 /  10  40  30  10
F10   98  74  95  72 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   96  77  95  74 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...23