771
FXUS64 KTSA 241122
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Another day of hot temperatures in store for all of E OK/NW AR.
Have upgraded the Heat Watch to an Excessive Heat Warning, and
this will also include LeFlore and Sequoyah counties with heat
index values of 110-112 degrees expected. Elsewhere, the Heat
Advisory remains as is. Headlines will be in effect from noon to
9pm. Some CAMS suggest potential for a few showers/storms this
afternoon in the higher terrain of far E OK and NW AR, but will
not include any mention as coverage should remain very low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Hot temperatures continue tomorrow, but a few more clouds
during the afternoon may keep temps down a degree or two. Will
go ahead with a Heat Advisory from noon to 9pm tomorrow for all
zones except the four far NW AR zones. Isolated storms are
possible tomorrow afternoon across parts of NW AR so will include
a low PoP in that area. With upper ridging setting up across the
SW CONUS, NW upper flow will bring a wave into the area along with
a surface boundary Tuesday night and into Wednesday afternoon.
Chances for showers and storms will increase at this time, with
the slightly better chances across NE OK and NW AR Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and
Thursday, however hot temperatures return at the end of the week
as the upper ridge sets up across the southern plains for Friday.

Additional chances for showers and storms may come next weekend,
especially across NE OK with convection that develops to the north
in KS along a cold front. This boundary may push into the over the
weekend, so will go with lower chance PoPs for parts of the area
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all
sites. Southerly sfc winds increase this morning and afternoon,
occasionally gusting 15-20 kts, primarily for NE OK sites. There
is a low chance (<15%) of an isolated shower or two this
afternoon, but any impacts should remain limited and brief if
this occurs. Otherwise, FEW to SCT mid/ high clouds expected
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  80  99  77 /   0   0  10  30
FSM  101  78  99  77 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   97  77  97  77 /   0   0  10  20
BVO  101  77  98  73 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   99  74  95  72 /   0   0  10  30
BYV   99  75  96  73 /  10   0  20  30
MKO   98  77  97  75 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   99  76  96  72 /   0   0  10  50
F10   97  77  96  75 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   96  77  95  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>071-073>075.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ072-076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...43