064
FXUS64 KTSA 260200
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
900 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A few isolated thunderstorms continue this evening, however
stronger and more widespread convection has mainly pushed
west of area. Still some uncertainty regarding storm evolution
tonight into Wednesday morning. Atmosphere remains very unstable
and there are some indications in the CAMS that storms may fester
overnight across portions of northeast Oklahoma ahead of
anticipated MCS, which should move into the area from the north
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Update will be sent to
modestly increase PoPs across NE OK tonight with better precip
coverage east of Highway 75 Wednesday morning ahead of main
convective line. Update out shortly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A decaying thunderstorm complex is forecast to be ongoing across
far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday morning with
additional shower/storm development possible near any remnant
outflow boundaries. Will keep the heat advisory for Wednesday
as is for now. However, an upgrade to a excessive heat warning
may be needed across portions of eastern Oklahoma Wednesday
afternoon.

Heat will continue to be the main concern through the remainder of the
forecast with temperatures around the century mark across portions of
the area most afternoons with heat headlines likely. However, there will
be a low chances of showers/storms Saturday into Sunday as a weak frontal
boundary tries to move into the region. This may keep temperatures a
few degrees cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Few to scattered mid and high clouds should continue across the
CWA this evening...and increase late tonight into Wednesday
morning ahead of a potential MCS diving south southeast out of
Kansas/Missouri. Thunderstorm chances increase over mainly far
eastern Oklahoma and also northwest Arkansas after 08z...and will
continue with Prob30/Tempo groups for timing through Wednesday
morning for northwest Arkansas TAF sites. Within the convection
will be gusty to locally strong winds and a brief period of heavy
rainfall. Behind the precip...broken high clouds should scatter
out with scattered mid clouds forecast for the afternoon hours.
Across eastern Oklahoma TAF sites Wednesday...broken mid/high
clouds in the morning should become mainly scattered high clouds
in northeast Oklahoma and scattered mid clouds in southeast
Oklahoma. Winds through the period start out southerly...become
variable with the precip...and then switch to a more westerly to
northwesterly Wednesday afternoon. Outside of any
precipitation...VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  78  99  74 /  20  30  20  10
FSM   99  78  96  76 /  20  30  50  10
MLC   97  78  98  74 /  20  20  20  10
BVO   99  73  97  69 /  20  30  20  20
FYV   96  72  92  69 /  20  40  60  10
BYV   96  72  91  68 /  20  50  60  10
MKO   96  77  96  73 /  20  30  30  10
MIO   96  72  93  69 /  20  40  40  10
F10   96  76  99  73 /  20  30  20  10
HHW   95  77  96  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...20