903
FXUS64 KTSA 161023
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A weak upper level trough is moving through the area, but the lower
atmosphere is generally too stable and dry to promote a risk of more
than a few isolated showers or storms across the area. Even so,
recent radar scans indicate a few light showers in portions of
central and northern OK into KS. These showers will mostly stay
out of the CWA, but an isolated rain shower or rumble of thunder
is possible for northeast OK. Temperatures will remain mild for
the remainder of the overnight hours, generally in the 70s with
dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s.

For the daytime hours today, it looks like another hot one. High
temperatures will be about the same as yesterday, mostly in the
lower 90s with continued humid conditions. There will be about a 10%
chance of a pop up storm across the higher terrain of southeast OK
and northwest AR, so any storms that do occur will be few and far
between. Southerly winds will remain breezy today, gusting to 15-25
mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The pattern will realign Monday through Wednesday as a powerful
upper level ridge builds across the northeast with a deep western
trough and a possibly tropical low entering into southern Texas.
With lowering upper level heights across the area, high temperatures
will slip a bit Monday and Tuesday, generally in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Due to unusually low pressure to the north, a stiff
southerly wind will develop for this period, with gusts of 25-35 mph
expected. The gusty southerly winds will continue to advect moisture
into the area, keeping dew points elevated. Any shower or
thunderstorm activity will be limited to the higher terrain during
the afternoon hours given limited forcing.

A a low with deep tropical moisture will move into Texas
Wednesday, moving northwestward but mostly staying west of the
forecast area. A small subset of guidance (20% or so) moves it
close enough to the area that a few showers or storms could pop up
Wednesday to Thursday, so steered the forecast to account for
this. The threat of storms during this period will mostly be
confined to eastern OK. Ensemble guidance favors a strong high
moving back over the area towards the end of the week, with
temperatures warming and the chance of rain mostly below 10%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions remain expected through the period at all
terminals, along with gusty southerly winds from late morning
through sunset everywhere except FSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  75  93  75 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   96  75  93  75 /  10  10  20   0
MLC   93  74  91  74 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   93  72  93  74 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   92  72  89  72 /  10  10  20   0
BYV   92  72  90  71 /  10  10  20   0
MKO   92  74  91  74 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   91  73  91  74 /  10   0  10   0
F10   92  72  90  73 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   92  73  89  72 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22