853
FXUS65 KTWC 090848
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
148 AM MST Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable heat within a few degrees of normal through
Monday before high pressure brings hotter temperatures again Tuesday
through Thursday. A slight chance of mainly dry thunderstorms this
afternoon along the New Mexico border, otherwise dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak disturbance aloft is resulting in some mainly
mid and high level clouds this morning, especially easy of Tucson
with mostly cloudy skies currently in Cochise County. This
disturbance will push off to the north and east today, though with
still a bit of mid level moisture near the NM border we do expect a
few build-ups with a slight chance of a dry thunderstorm or two.
Otherwise, we`re in a slight reprieve in the temperature department
today with highs dropping a few more degrees compared to Saturday.
It`s still warm enough for triple digit heat in Tucson with a
forecast high of 102 but this is near the current normal of 101
degrees.

Dry conditions area-wide return Monday with similar temperatures to
today. Thereafter, the larger scale pattern will feature an
expansive strong ridge aloft centered just east of our forecast area
with a low just off the southern California coast. For southeast
Arizona, the ridging will be in control as heights/thicknesses
increase Tuesday, and then especially Wednesday and Thursday. This
will result in a return to Heat Risk levels back into the major
category for lower elevations. After coordination with PSR, we`ve
gone ahead and hoisted an Excessive Heat Watch for late Tuesday
morning through Thursday evening. The current forecast of 109 in
Tucson Wednesday and Thursday is just below the record highs for
these dates of 110 and 112 respectively.

As the aforementioned low pushes east into Arizona Friday, that will
drop down heights and lower temperatures about 5 degrees Friday into
next weekend with dry conditions continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/12Z.
Clear skies to SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL west of KTUS thru the
forecast period, with FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-14k ft AGL and SCT-BKN
clouds AOA 20K ft AGL east of KTUS. There will be a slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA mainly east of a KALK to KSOW line between 09/18Z and
10/02Z. SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in direction between
thru 09/17Z, then becoming SLY/SWLY at 11-16 kts, with gusts to 20-
25 kts between 09/17Z and 10/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mid level moisture in place will result in a slight
chance of mainly dry thunderstorms east of Tucson this afternoon.
These storms will generally be dry and may produce gusty and erratic
winds along with lightning. High temperatures will be 1-3 degrees
above normal through Monday, warming to around 7 to 10 degrees above
normal by mid week. Expect min RH values of 4-9 percent in the lower
elevations and 8-15 percent in the mountains through the middle of
this week, along with poor overnight recoveries between 20-35
percent in most locations. Outside of any thunderstorm outflows, 20-
foot winds will follow typical diurnal patterns through the middle
of this week, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to strong
surface heating. Sustained 20-foot wind speeds will generally be 15
mph or less, except for some elevated winds at 15-20 mph and gusts
to around 30 mph this afternoon and early evening to the southeast
of Tucson.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening
for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$


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