706
FXUS65 KTWC 062130
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 PM MST Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring hotter temperatures over the
next several days. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for
today and Friday. A weather system will bring a modest moisture
increase Friday into the weekend, with a chance of thunderstorms
each afternoon mainly near the eastern mountains. Rainfall should
be limited, with strong and erratic winds being the main threat
along with lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor this afternoon showed an upper level
low SW of the Baja Spur with dense cirrus shield over the area
under E-SE flow aloft. Visible imagery showed cumulus to towering
cumulus clouds over the mountains east of Tucson with more
coverage over the White mountains. No lighting seen yet today but
can`t rule out a strike or two. Low levels rather dry so little if
any rain but a few wind gusts to 35 mph from the virga shafts.
The cloud cover hasn`t put any dent in the high temperatures with
a few areas near record highs. Excessive Heat Warning in effect
today and again on Friday. The upper low on Friday will be closer
to the Baja Spur with moisture increasing a bit for a little
better chance 10%-30% of showers/storms across parts of Greenlee,
Graham and Cochise counties. Gusty winds and little rain excepted
from any storms that develop.

This weekend will see the Baja upper low gradually lift across
the area and be east of the area on Monday. Main impact will be
not as hot each day with high temperatures within 1-3 degrees of
climatology.

Next week will see a repeat of current conditions with another
upper low setting up shop near Baja with upper ridge amplifying
over the area for another round of hot/near record high
temperatures and increase heat risk. Looking at the 12z ECMWF
ensemble members, almost 20% of them have Tucson in the 110-113
degree range next Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.
BKN high cloudiness AOA 20K ft AGL through of the fcst pd. FEW-
SCT mid level clouds AOA 10K ft AGL thru 07/04Z with slight chc
of -TSRA nr mtns mainly to the east of KTUS. Slgt chance of -TSRA
again after 0720z. Typical wind patterns generally under 10 kts,
with some gustiness from the west and northwest in the afternoon
hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hotter the next few days with temperatures near
record highs today through Friday, with an Excessive Heat Warning
for those days. Minimum RH values in the single digits in the
valleys with poor overnight recoveries. A modest increase in
moisture will bring isolated thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson
and towards the White Mountains later today. Better chances for
storms and as well as coverage on Friday into the weekend. These
storms will generally be dry and can produce gusty and erratic
winds along with lightning. Outside of thunderstorms, winds
generally remain light through the remainder of the week and into
the weekend, with some afternoon breeziness.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

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