Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
962 FXUS65 KTWC 162100 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 200 PM MST Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A few showers and thunderstorms around the area this afternoon and tonight. Dry conditions will return Tuesday afternoon through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will be below average. && .DISCUSSION...We`ve seen considerable mid level drying over the past 24 hours, but there`s still enough boundary layer moisture for the strong low passing through the Great Basin to work with. We`ll keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early Tuesday, with a frontal passage finally scouring everything out late Tuesday. After that, expect dry air and cool air advection as a broad mean trough position remains in place across the west. That will keep our temperatures below average the remainder of the week, with some crispness in the early morning hours the second half of the week as we see overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s across the lower deserts, with 50s in cooler eastern valley locations. Ensemble means suggest another more modest transition season low pushing across the area this weekend. There may not be much moisture available to draw up into the warm sector ahead of it though, so likely very limited precip chances. && .AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z. Clouds generally SCT-BKN 4k-8k ft AGL. ISOLD-SCT showers and thunderstorms until 17/15Z, then clearing from the west. Strong erratic winds with some storms, otherwise breezy winds out of the south to southwest expected with gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue today and tonight, before dry air moves in tomorrow through at least next weekend. Valley min RH values will fall as low as 10 to 15 percent. South to southwest 20 ft winds of 10-20 mph and higher gusts at times, diminishing late in the week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson