671
FXUS65 KTWC 262118
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
218 PM MST Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures are expected through the
coming weekend. The hottest days are expected to be Friday and
Saturday when an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from Tucson
westward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The main weather story continues to be this late
season heat. This is thanks to an area of high pressure and
general ridging that is dominating the flow pattern. As of 2 PM
MST, Tucson International Airport has reached 105 degrees,
already breaking the record for today. There is still time for
some extra heating, so only time will tell if we can eek out
another degree or two. Friday and Saturday continue to be the
hottest days over the next seven days with a forecasted 107
degrees for both days.

Unfortunately, this ridging pattern is expected to stick around
for much of the foreseeable future as we can see temperatures 5-8
degrees above normal for the next 7 days.

Looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Center and longer range
models are forecasting above normal temperatures for the 8-14 day
forecast as well as the 3-4 week outlooks. So we might be talking
heat for a while longer.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 9k-12k feet through 27/04Z. SFC winds generally
remain under 10 kts and follow diurnal trends. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions and hot temperatures this week,
with the hottest days on Friday and Saturday. 20-foot winds
generally less than 15 mph with an easterly component through the
weekend. Min relative humidities will be in the teens for the
lower elevations and the middle 20s for the higher elevations.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS

DATE                         Sep 26           Sep 27           Sep 28
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       105 104/2023     107 103/2023     107 103/1994
AJO                       106 106/2023     110 106/1960     112 106/2020
KITT PEAK                  87  85/1979      90  84/2005      90  84/2009
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         105 107/1956     109 107/1994     110 107/1992
PICACHO PEAK              104 106/2020     107 105/2022     108 104/2009
SAFFORD AG STATION        100  99/2020     102 100/2005     101 100/2005
SIERRA VISTA FD            95  95/2020      96  96/2023      95  95/2023
TOMBSTONE                  95  96/2020      97  99/1942      96  98/1917
WILLCOX                    95 100/1915      97  98/1956      97  98/1956

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 PM MST Saturday
for AZZ501-502-504-505.

&&

$$

Tetrault

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