Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
717 FXUS65 KTWC 261648 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 948 AM MST Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a daily chance of thunderstorms into next week. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will heat up a few degrees by the middle of the week as high pressure builds overhead. Looking into July, the pattern is favoring active weather as additional moisture will likely move into the area. && .UPDATE...Moisture is still around today with the 12Z sounding PWATs value 1.74 inches. This is a new max record for 12Z soundings on this day. The total precipitable water also shows the deep values of moisture in the 2 to 2.5 inches towards Yuma. Mid level clouds are starting to clear to pave the way for lower level instability. The latest 16Z analysis shows surface based CAPE close to 3000 J/kg over Cochise County with the CIN values eroding away to zero. The sunshine in the next few hours will help jump start the instability in the lower levels to get some thunderstorm organization in the early afternoon. The biggest challenge for storms is the slight nudge of midlevel warming that is noticeable in the upper air sounding. This cap may be the culprit to limit the larger thunderstorm activity, but a few isolated storms could develop with the aid of any mountainous feature. The latest CAM trends show a better consensus for storm activity mainly in Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties and especially along the border and just south into Mexico. There is better instability and ingredients along the border. Southeast Arizona could see thunderstorms developing early as 1pm and the thundertorm window ending around sunset. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 AM MST Wed Jun 26 2024/ Relatively deep moisture remains in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s and precipitable water values ranging from 1.4 inches near the NM border and 1.8 inches in portions of the lower deserts. We`re relying on outflows from thunderstorm complexes in Sonora to maintain our moisture, but that`s not going to be enough to reverse a slow downward trend that is underway. In addition, as high pressure builds overhead we`re seeing some mid level warming which will make for a less favorable storm environment. We`ll keep enough moisture around for isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances, but best coverage should be east and south of Tucson today. As high pressure breaks down and shifts eastward over the weekend into early next week, the resulting flow will once again become more favorable for importing moisture on a larger scale. Add in a couple of modest surges in the meantime and we should have more widespread storm coverage again over the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 27/12Z. SCT-BKN 100-140ft AGL. Isolated-scattered -TSRA after 26/19Z with brief MFR conditions possible near storms. Winds generally remain below 10 kts through the forecast period, except for gusty outflow winds from storms. KSAD area may see a few winds gust up to 25 kts this afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms. Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible. Stronger erratic outflows with some thunderstorms. && && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson