Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
151 FXUS63 KUNR 131102 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 502 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - At or above normal temperatures continue through the weekend. - Unsettled weather over the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday) Issued at 154 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Current upper level analysis shows zonal flow over the forecast area this morning. At the surface, low pressure sits over northern MN, while weak surface high sits just west of our region. Radar currently highlights showers/storms over northwestern SD. Temperatures currently sit in the mid 50s over northeastern Wyoming to upper 60s over south central SD, with light northeast winds. Current elevated showers/storms will continue into this morning over northwestern SD into central SD as weak disturbance moves over the state. As high pressure builds in, expect another warm day today, with highs in the 80s across most of the forecast area, and mid 70s across the Black Hills. Winds will shift to the south later tonight into Friday morning, as the high shifts eastward. Low level jet also sets up over the region, coupled with theta-e advection will allow for more showers/storms Friday morning into the afternoon, generally in southwestern to south central SD. Broad ridge builds over the northern plains early weekend, however multiple disturbances will allow unsettled weather to continue, with weak waves impacting the region later Friday, and again on Saturday night. Cannot rule out a strong to severe storm Friday with modest shear and CAPE values 1000-2000 j/Kg, however models show strong cap in place that may dampen severe chances. Saturday`s severe storm chances will be dependent on the timing of the wave and associated frontal boundary. Models currently show the disturbance moving through Late Saturday, which may limit severe potential. By Sunday, upper ridge begins to slide towards the Great Lakes region, and southwest flow sets up aloft. Multiple disturbances riding the southwest flow will allow for near daily chances for storms early next week, along with cooler temperatures, with Mondays highs only reaching into the mid 60s for much of the region. A bit more uncertainty in the models as we progress toward mid-week, however models point to a general warming trend back to near normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued At 500 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Leftover showers/isolated thunderstorms will end by 14z, mainly over northwest SD. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will redevelop late tonight (after 03z Friday) over western SD. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, except in/near thunderstorms where brief/local MVFR VSBYS are possible. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...Helgeson