572
FXUS63 KUNR 211011
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
411 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Gusty northwest winds this morning will slowly diminish from west
 to east this afternoon

-Much cooler this weekend, with some frost early Sunday morning
 across northeast WY and northwest SD

-Warming back up next week with little to no precipitation
 expected

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 1257 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Water vapor shows split upper trof, with northern stream low over
southern SASK and southern stream low over the Desert SW. At the
surface, cold front associated with the northern stream low is
quickly moving through western SD, with gusty northwest winds in
its wake.

Gusty northwest will continue through the morning, then gradually
diminish from west to east during the afternoon. Strongest winds
will be along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills and adjacent
plains and current wind advisory looks good. Highs will range from
around 60 west to the lower 70s east.

Surface high builds into the western Dakotas tonight, with clear
skies and light winds resulting in lows in the 30s west to lower
40s east. Some frost possible in the west.

Slightly warmer temps are expected Sunday as southerly flow
returns. Next upper trof works through later Monday, with winds
shifting back around to the northwest. Highs both Monday and
Tuesday will be largely in the 70s, warmest on Monday.

Upper ridge builds through the Rockies and into the Plains
mid to late next week, with dry weather continuing and temps
rebounding back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued At 409 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Strong north-northwest winds with gusts of 35 to 45 kts this
morning will gradually diminish through the day. VFR conditions
will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 1257 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Gusty northwest winds behind a cold front will continue through
this morning, with winds slowly diminishing this afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions will continue given the strong
winds, although minimum RH will be 25 to 35 percent. Temperatures
through the weekend will be near average, but will then begin to
rise again next week as an upper ridge builds back into the
region. This will likely bring more elevated fire weather conditions
through next week. Little to no precipitation is expected over
the next week or so.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until noon MDT today for SDZ026-030-031-042-072-
     073.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...Pojorlie
FIRE WEATHER...Johnson