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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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367 FXUS63 KUNR 190849 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 249 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures continue through Thursday. - Mostly dry conditions today, but unsettled weather returns Thursday through the weekend. - Warming trend over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday) Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Current surface analysis show surface high pressure situated over far southeastern MT this morning. Water Vapor and upper air models show upper wave that moved through the northern plains now situated over western Ontario, with upper trough over the PAC NW and southwest flow over our region. Current temperatures sit in the 40s over western SD, while the Black Hills and northeastern WY have dropped into the 30s over some areas. Light winds along with near freezing temperatures over some areas may allow for some frost to develop early this morning, mainly over northeast WY and the Black Hills. Surface high passes over the region this morning and afternoon, allowing for mostly dry and cooler conditions to continue. High temperatures will stick around the mid 60s to low 70s. Some isolated showers may pop up this afternoon over northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and northwestern SD, but expect most of the region to remain dry today. On the back side of the high later today, low level southeasterly flow returns, allowing for warmer air and moisture advection. Increasing theta-e will bring a better chance for precipitation tonight into Thursday. Ample shear in the region, however MU CAPE of 200-500 j/Kg tonight should limit severe potential and keep general storms and showers through Thursday. Better chance for severe potential remains on Friday, as a disturbance makes its way across the northern plains. Still good 40-50 kt 0-6km shear over the region on Friday, with better available energy, especially closer to south central and central SD, with models showing ML CAPE values in the 1000-2000 j/Kg range. Severe potential will likely depend on timing and placement of the wave as it moves through the northern plains Friday. Following passage of the shortwave, conditions will improve later Saturday into Sunday. Upper models show ridge building over the Rockies in this timeframe, sliding over the northern plains early next week, bringing warmer and dry air over the region. Highs should climb back into the 80s by Sunday, and perhaps low 90s on Monday. Early next week, ridge breaks down into more zonal flow over the forecast area, though right now models show any disturbances well north of the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1002 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas of MVFR CIGS, especially over northwest SD, will linger overnight, then dissipate Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...Johnson