432
FXUS65 KVEF 061142
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
440 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region through
Friday, then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough
approaches the West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15
degrees above normal can be expected, with record high temperatures
likely for some sites today and Friday. Temperatures will slowly
retreat over the weekend, but will remain above normal into early
next week.
&&

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR HARRY REID UPDATED AT 1140 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday night. Midnight satellite loop showed
clear skies areawide aside from a few leftover mid level clouds over
far western Esmeralda County. Surface obs showed hot temperatures,
including Death Valley and Needles still in triple digits, and light
winds areawide. The heat remains the main concern. Heat Advisories
and Excessive Heat Warnings through Friday look good, with record
highs and record warm lows both in play. Saturday, high temperatures
should come down just a bit, but very warm overnight lows will
persist, especially in the urbanized and lower elevation areas.
Thus, extended the Excessive Heat Warning for Death Valley, western
Clark, southern Nye, the Las Vegas Valley, and northeast Clark
through Saturday evening. Thunderstorm chances are the secondary
concern. High resolution models are painting isolated thunderstorms
over the Sierra crest this afternoon, expanding northeastward across
Esmeralda County and central Nye County Friday. This is in an area
of precipitable water around 0.75 inch, which may not sound like
much, but is around 200% of normal for early June. Forecast
soundings suggest strong winds will be the main concern with any
thunderstorms. Slight drying on Saturday should reduce thunderstorm
chances. Wind will be the tertiary concern. Southwesterly gusts
around 25 mph over much of our CWA will cause increased fire weather
concerns as fuels continue to dry out, but do not look strong enough
to prompt a Fire Weather Watch.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Wednesday.

We will finally start to see some minor relief Sunday and Monday as
a Pacific trough moves inland and pushes the strong ridge east. We
will also see some minor impacts from a weak closed low pushing
through northern Baja, mainly in the form of a few more clouds that
will help moderate temps a bit. The combination of the lowering
heights from the Pacific trough and increasing clouds from the Baja
low is expected to help reduce temperatures about 3-5 degrees from
Saturday and about 8-10 degrees off the peak of the heat wave. This
being said, temperatures will still be averaging about 4-5 degrees
above normal. This slight cooling trend is expected to be short-
lived as the ridge is expected to rebuild over the western US
increasing temperatures once again by mid to late week, however, at
this time there is a lot of uncertainty with how hot temperatures
will get. Probabilities for 110 in Las Vegas increase to 40% by
Wednesday, but the 25th to 75th percentiles range from 105 to 112.
Either way you look at it, above-normal temperatures are likely (60-
80%) to continue through at least the 2nd week of June.
&&

.CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum
temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week.
The tables below shows the daily record high temperature and record
high minimum temperature for Thursday, June 6 through Saturday,
June 8.

RECORD HIGH     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7     SAT, JUNE 8
                Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       110(2010)       109(2013)       112(2013)
Bishop          102(2010)       103(2013)       105(2016)
Needles         114(2013)       117(2013)       118(1955)
Barstow-Daggett 110(1981)       112(1985)       113(2013)
Kingman         103(2013)       106(2013)       107(1955)
Death Valley    121(1996)       123(1995)       123(2013)

RECORD WARM     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7     SAT, JUNE 8
LOW             Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       83(2019)        86(2010)        84(2016)
Bishop          64(2016)        61(2016)        64(2014)
Needles         87(2006)        95(2016)        85(2013)
Barstow-Daggett 82(1981)        81(2002)        77(2016)
Kingman         74(1981)        74(1928)        74(1927)
Death Valley    95(2019)        93(2006)        94(2022)

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will remain light, 10 knots or
less, and will follow typical diurnal directional trends through
late afternoon when winds will pick up and swing around to the
southwest. 15 knot wind gusts will accompany this wind shift and
will continue through the evening hours. Once wind gusts drop off
winds will continue to maintain their southwesterly direction
through the overnight hours.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds at the Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will remain
relatively light, 10 knots or less, and will follow typical diurnal
directional trends. Winds at KBIH will follow typical diurnal
directional trends, swinging from the northwest to southeast later
this morning/early this afternoon. These southeasterly winds will be
accompanied by 15 to 20 knot wind gusts, which will persist through
the late afternoon hours. KDAG will favor a westerly direction with
a period of light and variable winds later this morning continuing
through mid-afternoon when winds will swing back to the west. This
shift back to the west will be accompanied by an increase in winds
with gusts around 20 knots expected. The Colorado River Valley TAF
sites will see light and variable winds pick up and swing around to
a more southerly direction early this afternoon. KEED will see 15 to
20 knot gusts accompany winds with this shift. These breezier winds
will continue into the evening hours.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Gorelow
AVIATION...Stessman

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