Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
880 FXUS65 KVEF 032055 CCA AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 122 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High clouds will continue across the region through tonight before clearing out Tuesday. An early June heatwave will develop Wednesday through Friday with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Temperatures will slowly retreat closer to seasonal averages over the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...through Friday. Considerable high clouds will continue to spread across our area tonight then clear out Tuesday behind a potent Pacific Northwest trough pulling away toward the northern plains which will allow a strong ridge to build over the western states Wednesday through Friday. This will result in a significant heatwave developing across our region and the Desert Southwest with major to extreme HeatRisk as temperatures climb 10 to 15 degrees above normal for most sites in our forecast area. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect Wednesday through Friday for our Mojave Desert zones and the Owens Valley. A Heat Advisory remains in effect Wednesday through Friday for the southern Great Basin and southern Nevada mountains. The latest NBM supports highs around 108 degrees in Las Vegas by Wednesday and 67% chance of reaching 112 degrees by Thursday...which would be two degrees above the record high (110F) for June 6th. This would tie the earliest date for reaching 110 degrees which previously occurred June 6th, 2010. The forecast high for Death Valley is 121. While not a record, the first 120 of the season is normally June 15th, so it would be an earlier-than-normal occurrence. If the temperatures overachieve at both Bishop and Kingman and they hit 105 degrees Thursday, it would be the earliest Bishop has hit 105, the current record occurrence is June 8, 2016. For Kingman, it will be the 4th earliest occurrence. Several record high temperatures, and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week. Overnight low temperatures will remain above 80 degrees Wednesday night through Friday across most lower Mojave Desert sites, so there will not be much relief from the extreme early season daytime temperatures. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Monday. Model ensembles indicate the heatwave will begin to break over our area Saturday, but there is some uncertainty regarding how quickly this will occur which depends on the influence of a weak Eastern Pacific trough and also a closed low in the vicinity of the Baja Peninsula which may allow moisture to be pulled over the Desert Southwest Saturday and Sunday. The latest NBM temperature forecast has 108F for Las Vegas, and major to extreme HeatRisk is indicated to hold over central and northeast Clark County and some other Mojave Desert areas which would may lead to extending the Excessive Heat Warning into Saturday for some zones. There is good agreement among the majority of model ensembles that temps will decrease several degrees Sunday and Monday as the eastern Pacific trough moves inland. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds will transition to the south or southeast after 18Z. These winds will likely be less than 10KT but uncertain where the wind direction will set up between 150 to 180 degrees. By 21Z, winds will become southwest. 100% chance for wind speeds over 10KT with the southwest winds, with gusts of 20- 25KT through the afternoon. After sunset, gusts will end. South winds may remain above 10KT for a few hours from 03Z-06Z but by 06Z high confidence that wind speeds will drop below 10KT. After a period of light winds early Tuesday morning, north winds will push into valley. Winds will shift north between 14-16Z. Wind speeds may hit 10KT or more as the winds move in, however they should be short lived before winds diminish and turn east by around mid-day Tuesday and continue through the afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California... Breezy south to southwest winds are expected this afternoon across much of the region. South winds up the Colorado River Valley will gust up to 20KT at times this afternoon. At KBIH, expect breezy west winds instead of south winds this afternoon with gusts up to 20KT as well. KDAG will also see west winds, with the strongest winds expected to push in around 00Z with gusts up to 30KT. Winds will generally diminish this evening and tonight, however elevated winds will push south through the region through the night. Winds will turn north at KBIH this evening between 00Z and 03Z- gusts of 20-25KT are expected much of the night with the north winds though a brief lull is possible between 06Z and 09Z. As the north winds push south, they should lose their punch and therefore the strong north winds are expected at KBIH. North winds will make it into southern Nevada by Tuesday morning, with south to southwest winds expected further south. Occasional high clouds between 15kft- 25kft are expected at times through the TAF period. The Colorado River Valley TAF sites will see light and variable winds pick up from the south later this morning/early this afternoon. These 20 to 25 knot southerly wind gusts will continue into the evening hours when gusts will drop off but winds will continue to maintain a more southerly direction. Light and variable winds will pick up and swing to the westerly around mid-afternoon at KBIH. These 20 knot westerly gusts will continue into the early evening hours before swinging to the northwest around 02/03 UTC. Light and variable winds at KVGT will begin veering around to the southwest and increasing in speed later this morning. Both KVGT and KHND will see winds settle in from the southwest during the early afternoon hours. These 20 to 25 knot southwesterly wind gusts will continue into the evening hours. KDAG will see 8 to 12 knot westerly winds shift to the west-northwest around mid-morning before picking up and shifting to the west-southwest later this afternoon. These 25 to 30 knot west-southwesterly wind gusts will continue into the overnight hours. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Adair AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter