379
FXUS65 KVEF 052026
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
125 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region through
Friday then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough
approaches the West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15
degrees above normal can be expected with record high temperatures
likely for some sites Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will slowly
retreat over the weekend, but will remain above normal into early
next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

The heat wave begins under a broad amplified ridge extending from
Mexico up to the Pacific Northwest with its axis directly over
Nevada today. The mean ridge will hold over our region Thursday and
Friday ahead of a weak trough over the Eastern Pacific moving slowly
toward the West Coast. Afternoon south-southwest winds will help
boost temps a little Thursday and Friday with sustained speeds 10-15
mph. There is no significant variation in temperature forecasts
through Friday and records form some sites will likely be broken
Thursday and Friday. See the climate section below for additional
details on records.

The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through 9 pm Friday for
our Mojave Desert zones and the Owens Valley. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect for the southern Great Basin and southern Nevada
mountains for the same period.

A 10-20% chance of showers or thunderstorms remains along the
southern Sierra of Inyo and Mono Counties each afternoon and evening
and gusty winds would be the main impact with any storm.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday.

Over the weekend and into early next week, temperatures are forecast
to gradually cool as a cutoff low off the Baja Coast begins to move
inland. By Sunday/Monday, the combination of falling 500mb heights
and increased cloud cover should bring highs down 5-10 degrees from
their peak on Thursday, but temperatures will still be several
degrees above normal. There may be just enough moisture with the low
to spur weak convection on the high terrain. Best odds (still only
15% or less) appear to be on the fringes of our CWA, namely the
Sierra, our far northern zones, and eastern Mohave County.
Otherwise, the forecast area remains largely dry.

By the middle of next week, the ensemble guidance has the low
dissipating and another ridge developing over the Western US.
Uncertainty remains on the strength and position of this ridge, as
well as potential for another cutoff low off the SoCal Coast.
Warming temperatures are likely during this time, but just how warm
we get will depend on the aforementioned uncertainties.
Probabilities for 110 in Las Vegas increase to 40% by Wednesday, but
the 25th to 75th percentiles range from 105 to 112. Either way you
look at it, above-normal temperatures are likely (60-80%) to
continue through at least the 2nd week of June.

&&

.CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures, and record high minimum
temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week.
The tables below shows the daily record high temperature
and record high minimum temperature for Wednesday, June 5 through
Friday, June 7.

RECORD HIGH     WED, JUNE 5     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7
                Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas        109(2016)      110(2010)       109(2013)
Bishop           101(2021)      102(2010)       103(2013)
Needles          117(2016)      114(2013)       117(2013)
Barstow-Daggett  110(1996)      110(1981)       112(1985)
Kingman          105(2016)      103(2013)       106(2013)
Death Valley     122(1996)      121(1996)       123(1995)

RECORD HIGH     WED, JUNE 5     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7
LOW             Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas        84(2021)       83(2019)        86(2010)
Bishop           63(2003)       64(2016)        61(2016)
Needles          87(1957)       87(2006)        95(2016)
Barstow-Daggett  80(1977)       82(1981)        81(2002)
Kingman          75(1903)       74(1981)        74(1928)
Death Valley     94(2021)       95(2019)        93(2006)

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will remain below 10 knots and
follow typical diurnal directional trends. Expect periods of light
and variable winds as they transition. Temperatures are expected to
reach 100 degrees between 10 am and ll am Thursday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds will remain relatively light at 10 knots or less
and will tend to follow typical diurnal directional trends. Winds
may become light and variable at times, especially as they
transition between day and night directions.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adair
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Salmen

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