928
FXUS65 KVEF 051706
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1005 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region through
Friday then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough
approaches the West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15
degrees above normal can be expected with record high temperatures
likely for some sites Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will slowly
retreat over the weekend into early next week, but stay above
normal.
&&

.UPDATE...No immediate changes needed to the forecast trends
detailed in the previous discussion. The Excessive Heat Warning/Heat
Advisory were updated to go in effect at 10 AM PDT/MST and will
remain in effect until at least 9 PM PDT/MST Friday.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM PDT

.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

Massive dome of high pressure in place across the Intermountain West
will translate to well above normal temperatures today-Friday.
Record highs, as well as record warm lows set to be broke or tied
during this heat wave. Please take this heat wave serious as many
have not had the time to acclimate to temperatures this hot, this
early. No change to existing heat products with an Excessive Heat
Warning in effect from 10 am this morning through 9 pm Friday for
our Mojave Desert zones and the Owens Valley. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for the southern Great Basin and southern Nevada mountains
over the same time period. Only other item is a 10%-20% chance of
showers or thunderstorms along the southern Sierra of Inyo and Mono
Counties each afternoon and evening. One or two of these storms may
come out of Mono/Mineral Counties and reach northwestern Esmeralda
in the early evening. Gusty winds would be the main impact for any
storm.

The latest NBM indicates a 38% probability of reaching 110 degrees
today at Harry Reid Airport in Las Vegas, but the official forecast
high remains at 108 degrees. A new record high looks almost certain
for Las Vegas on Thursday with a 90% chance of reaching 112 degrees.
This would tie the earliest date for reaching 110 degrees which
previously occurred June 6, 2010. The record high for Death Valley
on June 6th is 121...which is also the forecast high so it won`t be
too much of stretch to reach 122. The first 120 of the season is
normally June 15th, so it would be an earlier-than-normal
occurrence. If Bishop hits 105 degrees, it would be the earliest
occurrence, the current record occurrence is June 8, 2016. See the
climate section below for additional details on records.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday.

Over the weekend and into early next week, temperatures are forecast
to gradually cool as a cutoff low off the Baja Coast begins to move
inland. By Sunday/Monday, the combination of falling 500mb heights
and increased cloud cover should bring highs down 5-10 degrees from
their peak on Thursday, but temperatures will still be several
degrees above normal. There may be just enough moisture with the low
to spur weak convection on the high terrain. Best odds (still only
15% or less) appear to be on the fringes of our CWA, namely the
Sierra, our far northern zones, and eastern Mohave County.
Otherwise, the forecast area remains largely dry.

By the middle of next week, the ensemble guidance has the low
dissipating and another ridge developing over the Western US.
Uncertainty remains on the strength and position of this ridge, as
well as potential for another cutoff low off the SoCal Coast.
Warming temperatures are likely during this time, but just how warm
we get will depend on the aforementioned uncertainties.
Probabilities for 110 in Las Vegas increase to 40% by Wednesday, but
the 25th to 75th percentiles range from 105 to 112. Either way you
look at it, above-normal temperatures are likely (60-80%) to
continue through at least the 2nd week of June.

&&

.CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures, and record high minimum
temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week.
The tables below shows the daily record high temperature
and record high minimum temperature for Wednesday, June 5 through
Friday, June 7.

RECORD HIGH     WED, JUNE 5     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7
                Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas        109(2016)      110(2010)       109(2013)
Bishop           101(2021)      102(2010)       103(2013)
Needles          117(2016)      114(2013)       117(2013)
Barstow-Daggett  110(1996)      110(1981)       112(1985)
Kingman          105(2016)      103(2013)       106(2013)
Death Valley     122(1996)      121(1996)       123(1995)

RECORD HIGH     WED, JUNE 5     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7
LOW             Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas        84(2021)       83(2019)        86(2010)
Bishop           63(2003)       64(2016)        61(2016)
Needles          87(1957)       87(2006)        95(2016)
Barstow-Daggett  80(1977)       82(1981)        81(2002)
Kingman          75(1903)       74(1981)        74(1928)
Death Valley     94(2021)       95(2019)        93(2006)

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will remain light, less than 10
knots, and will follow typical diurnal directional trends with
period of light and variable winds as they transition.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds will remain relatively light, 10 knots or less,
and will tend to follow typical diurnal directional trends. Winds
may become light and variable at times, especially as they
transition directions.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Stessman

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