199
FXUS65 KVEF 040815
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
115 AM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region the rest of
the work week. Hot temperatures will develop Wednesday through
Friday with values as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Temperatures will slowly retreat over the weekend into early next
week but stay above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

Still plenty of high clouds left over the area early this morning.
But as eastern Pacific ridge continues to build inland the brunt of
these clouds should be exiting the area later this morning. Forecast
high temperatures today will be within 1 or 2 degrees of yesterday.

Expansive ridge will remain entrenched over the Intermountain West
and southern Rockies through Friday. Widespread Major, with pockets
of Extreme HeatRisk projected throughout the southern Great Basin
and Mojave Desert with temperatures as much as 15 degrees above
normal. Those pockets of Extreme HeatRisk are concentrated mostly
within the Las Vegas Valley and Death Valley NP as there will be
less relieve from the heat in the overnight hours. No change needed
to our existing Heat products this morning. An Excessive Heat Warning
is in effect Wednesday through Friday for our Mojave Desert zones and
the Owens Valley. A Heat Advisory remains in effect Wednesday through
Friday for the southern Great Basin and southern Nevada mountains.

The latest NBM supports A high around 108 degrees at Harry Reid
Wednesday, and 75% chance of reaching 112 degrees Thursday...which
would be two degrees above the record. This would tie the earliest
date for reaching 110 degrees which previously occurred June 6th,
2010. There remains a 75% chance of reaching 110 degrees on Friday.
The forecast high for Death Valley is 122. While not a record,
it would be one of the Top 3 earliest occurrences of reaching 122
degrees. The first 120 of the season is normally June 15th, so
it would be an earlier-than-normal occurrence. Temperature forecasts
for Bishop and Kingman continue to rise as well and now stand at 104
degrees on Thursday. If Bishop hits 105 degrees, it would be the earliest
occurrence, the current record occurrence is June 8, 2016. For
Kingman, it will be the 4th earliest occurrence.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

Uncertainty persists regarding Saturday`s forecast. There is good
agreement that a weak closed low will push into Baja California and
that a weak Pacific trough will move through the western CONUS.
Disagreement continues regarding the strength and positioning of
these entities as they push through the region. The strength and
positioning will determine temperatures on Saturday by way of the
amount of moisture transport as well as the degree of height falls
in the Desert Southwest. A weaker and slower solution pertaining to
both the trough and the low would result in persistent hot
temperatures and would increase the likelihood of extending
excessive heat products into Saturday. At present, the chance of
108F on Saturday in Las Vegas is 67%, which would indicate a
persistent Major-to-Extreme HeatRisk in desert valleys across the
forecast area. Will continue to monitor excessive heat potential
going into the weekend as the week progresses and as we gain more
information regarding the synoptic outlook.

There is good agreement among the majority of model ensembles that
temperatures will decrease by several degrees Sunday and Monday as
the eastern Pacific trough moves inland. That said, temperatures
will likely remain 5-8 degrees above seasonal normals with
`Moderate` HeatRisk in desert valleys. Through the weekend, continue
to take frequent breaks in the air conditioning and/or shade if
recreating or working outdoors.

&&

.CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures, and record high minimum
temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week.
The tables below shows the daily record high temperature
and record high minimum temperature for Wednesday, June 5 through
Friday, June 7.

RECORD HIGH     WED, JUNE 5     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7
                Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas        109(2016)      110(2010)       109(2013)
Bishop           101(2021)      102(2010)       103(2013)
Needles          117(2016)      114(2013)       117(2013)
Barstow-Daggett  110(1996)      110(1981)       112(1985)
Kingman          105(2016)      103(2013)       106(2013)
Death Valley     122(1996)      121(1996)       123(1995)

RECORD HIGH     WED, JUNE 5     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7
LOW             Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas        84(2021)       83(2019)        86(2010)
Bishop           63(2003)       64(2016)        61(2016)
Needles          87(1957)       87(2006)        95(2016)
Barstow-Daggett  80(1977)       82(1981)        81(2002)
Kingman          75(1903)       74(1981)        74(1928)
Death Valley     94(2021)       95(2019)        93(2006)

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwesterly winds will decrease and
become light and variable during the early morning hours. These
light and variable winds will give way breezy northerly winds around
15Z. As these northerly winds will push into the valley from the
north-northwest before swinging to a more north-northeasterly
direction. As these northerly winds push into the valley there is a
20% to 40% chance that winds will swing east of 30 degrees with
sustained speeds of 10 knots or greater. By early afternoon these
northerly winds will have relaxed and fallen to a more easterly
direction, with winds remaining relatively light and following
typical directional trends throughout the evening hours.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy northerly winds will continue through
approximately 15Z at KBIH. Once gusts drop off, winds will favor a
northerly to northwesterly direction through the afternoon hours
with winds becoming light and variable around sunset. Westerly wind
gusts will drop off around sunrise at KDAG with 8 to 12 knot
sustained winds following typical diurnal directional trends
afterwards. The Colorado River Valley TAF sites will see light and
variable winds increase slightly as they settle in from a more
southerly direction around mid-morning. These southerly winds will
persist into the evening hours. Light and variable winds at KVGT
will swing to the north-northwest and pick up shortly after sunrise.
These 15 to 20 knot northwesterly wind gusts will continue through
late morning when guts will drop off and winds will become light,
following typical diurnal trends into the evening hours. KHND will
see southwesterly winds swing around to the northeast around 14/15
UTC. These northeasterly winds will continue into the early
afternoon hours when winds will become light and variable.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Varian
AVIATION...Stessman

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