094
FXUS65 KVEF 031215
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1238 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An intense and long-duration heatwave will begin today
across the Mojave Desert and build northward into the southern Great
Basin through early next week. Numerous high temperature records
will be challenged or broken. Meanwhile, dry conditions will persist
with no sign of monsoonal moisture through early next week.
&&


.SHORT TERM...through Friday night. Midnight satellite loop showed
clear skies areawide. Surface obs showed light winds with spotty
gusts over 20 mph, hot temperatures, and low humidity. No meaningful
change to forecast thinking. It has been hot, but it will get even
hotter starting today, as a major heat wave of unusual intensity and
duration gets underway thanks to strong Pacific high pressure.
Excessive Heat Warnings go into effect later this morning for the
lower elevations of Inyo County, northwest San Bernardino County,
southern Nye County, and western and central Clark County. Beginning
late Thursday morning, the Warnings expand to cover all areas below
4000 feet (and some higher elevations) in our CWA. At some point,
Advisories or maybe even Warnings will be needed for most or all of
our higher elevation areas, but that will be in the long term
period. It must be emphasized that today through Friday will only be
the beginning of this fierce heat wave. Please stay safe.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Tuesday.

High confidence in widespread major and extreme Heat Risk impacts
over the weekend into early next week.

Over the weekend, the higher elevations will begin to feel the
impacts of the heatwave, with Lee and Kyle Canyons climbing well
into the 80s and lower 90s. Additional heat products may be needed
closer to the weekend for these areas, Lincoln County, and the
Arizona Strip.

By early next week, little has changed with a broad ridge of high
pressure settling over the southern Great Basin. This will ensure
our hot temperatures continue, and Monday and Tuesday are the days
with the highest NBM probabilities for all time record highs around
the Las Vegas Valley.

To reiterate, a dangerous and long lasting heat spell will persist
into the foreseeable future. Extreme Heat Risk is expected for much
of our lower elevations including Las Vegas and safety precautions
are not just suggested, but urged, as this magnitude of heat is
deadly.

Our best chance to break the intense heat would be for a monsoonal
moisture intrusion to creep in from the south, through the forecast
orientation of the high pressure center suggests that is unlikely
until at least midweek next week. Thereafter, numerous ensemble
members begin to at least hint at the possibility of some low grade
monsoonal moisture returning to the area and temperatures easing
from their near-record levels by mid-month.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Expect winds to follow typical diurnal
trends today, with light southwesterly winds through the early-
morning, light northeasterly winds in the morning, then breezy
southwesterly winds in the afternoon and evening. The initial
southwesterly push will be accompanied by occasional gusts between
15 and 20 kts, but frequency will decrease through the evening as
winds gain a westerly component. No operationally significant cloud
cover through the TAF period. Temperatures will increase above 100
degrees between 16Z and 06Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and
southeastern California...Expect winds to follow typical diurnal
trends through the morning and afternoon today across the region.
Around sunset, southwesterly winds will pick up in the Las Vegas and
Colorado River Valleys with occasional gusts between 15 and 20 kts
and westerly gusts will pick up at KDAG between 20 and 25 kts. Gust
frequency will decrease through the evening. No operationally
significant cloud cover through the TAF period. Temperatures will
increase to 110-120F late-week into the weekend.
&&


.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees
of the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           WED, JUL 3  THU, JUL 4  FRI, JUL 5  SAT, JUL 6
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     116(1937)*  115(1985)*  116(2007)*  115(2007)*
Bishop        107(1984)*  107(2007)*  108(2007)*  105(2021)*
Needles       119(2013)*  121(2007)   121(1989)*  120(1922)*
Daggett       115(2001)*  117(1991)   118(2007)   115(2007)*
Kingman       111(1967)   110(2007)*  109(2007)*  108(2017)*
Desert Rock   113(2013)   112(1985)   112(2007)*  111(2007)*
Death Valley  127(2013)   128(2013)   126(2013)*  127(2007)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature
and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes
which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the
forecast).

WARM MIN      WED, JUL 3  THU, JUL 4  FRI, JUL 5  SAT, JUL 6
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     92(2013)    91(2015)    89(2013)*   90(1957)*
Bishop        71(2013)    67(2001)    67(1984)    67(1985)
Needles       94(2013)    95(2013)    92(2013)    97(1903)
Daggett       86(2013)    88(2001)    84(1984)*   83(2007)*
Kingman       82(1906)    80(2013)    78(2021)    79(1981)
Desert Rock   86(1996)    83(2015)    80(1981)    83(1992)
Death Valley  102(2013)   100(1915)   110(1918)   99(2013)
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Outler/Salmen
AVIATION...Soulat
CLIMATE...Soulat

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