Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
446 FXUS65 KVEF 120901 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 201 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions continue today followed by slight relief Thursday as a weak low pressure system moves in from Southern California, but well above normal temperatures will persist through Saturday. A more noticable cooldown and increased winds are likely Sunday into early next week as a broad trough drops down from the Pacific Northwest. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. The ridge over the Desert Southwest will provide another hot day with highs this afternoon within a degree or two of those observed Tuesday. The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for parts of Mohave, Clark, southern Nye and Inyo counties until 9 PM this evening. The cutoff low spinning southwest of San Diego was devoid of clouds, but could be seen on water vapor imagery and there was moisture between Acapulco and Cabo San Lucas that was working its way toward northwest Mexico and will be pulled up into western Arizona Thursday on the leading edge of the low as it begins to move into Southern California. The latest HREF and NBM indicate a fairly stable air mass over Mohave County and not much potential for thunderstorms. However, the incoming mid-level moisture will lead to favorable conditions for gusty winds associated with any virga or light shower. The HREF indicates a 30-50% percent chance of convective gusts over 35 mph for eastern Mohave County Thursday afternoon. Can`t completely rule out the possibility of a thunderstorm, but the probability is less than 10 percent and not enough to mention in the forecast for now. The rest of the region will remain dry with temperatures lowering 2-4 degrees and afternoon south winds gusting 20-25 mph. The upper low is forecast to be centered over northwest Arizona early Friday morning and will lift across the Four Corners Region by Friday afternoon leaving dry conditions across our region as a shortwave ridge redevelops over the Desert Southwest going into Saturday. This will allow temperatures to rebound a few degrees and lead to elevated HeatRisk before a significant cooling trend begins Sunday. .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Wednesday. Some clarity is starting to show itself in the long range forecast or next week as models try to resolve an upper level trough digging into the region early next week. Models have come into some consensus in the past 24 hours that a deepening trough will dig south into the Southwest US by Monday, though there continues to be uncertainty in exact strength and how far it will dig. Impactful precipitation is not anticipated as the general trajectory on all possible solutions is dry. While there is still a decent temperature spread noted on high temperature possibilities early next week-increasing confidence that Monday and Tuesday will be cooler than what we have been experiencing. There is a 50% chance the high temperature in Las Vegas doesn`t reach 100F Monday through Wednesday next week. Winds will be the other thing to watch. Exact wind impacts will depend on the depth of the incoming low, increasing winds are likely based on many of the long range model camps but how strong they will get will depend on how deep and how far south the trough can get. NBM 1D viewer probabilities for impactful winds gusts have increased to around 40% in areas that are prone to west or southwest winds like Barstow, CA. It`s worth noting- there continues to be some impactful wind gust members on ECMWF Ensemble meteograms. ECMWF EFI plots suggest Monday has the best potential for impactful winds with smatterings of highlighted areas for higher than normal winds. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds through the morning hours will be predominantly light and follow typical diurnal trends. Expect a southerly component to the wind direction this afternoon, initially favoring a southeast component before becoming predominantly southwest late in the afternoon through sunset. Wind speeds generally under 8 knots this morning becoming 10-12 knots this afternoon with gusts around 20 knots. Clear skies. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Light and diurnal winds anticipated at all of the area TAF sites through this morning then becoming gusty 20-25 knots this afternoon through sunset before gustiness ends. FEW mid-high clouds at KBIH this afternoon otherwise clear skies. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adair LONG TERM...Nickerson AVIATION...Salmen For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter