508
FXUS65 KVEF 250402
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
902 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to increase each day
through the end of the week as an upper-level ridge sets up over the
region. This will lead to near record high temperatures and
excessive heat for late September along the lower Colorado River
Valley Thursday through Saturday. A weak low pressure system will
move over Southern California and Nevada early next week resulting
in a slight cooling trend.
&&


.UPDATE...Las Vegas had a high of 98 today. Chances of Las Vegas
observing 100 degrees increases each day through the rest of the
week, with best chances on Saturday. This is relevant, because 2024
is currently tied with 1947 for most days in a year with a
temperature of 100 degrees or higher. Both 2024 and 1947 observed
100 days. Achieving 100 degrees this week would put 2024 in first
place for this record. No changes made to the forecast this evening,
as it looks to be in good shape.
&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...140 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024/

.SHORT TERM...through Thursday.

Persistent above normal temperatures and dry conditions are the main
story for the foreseeable future although a Pacific Northwest trough
moving inland and brushing northern Nevada will stir up some
southerly breezes Wednesday afternoon across Inyo County and the
southern Great Basin. The anomalously strong high centered over
Arizona/New Mexico will begin expanding westward Wednesday leading to
a gradual increase in temperatures with the forecast high of 107 at
Needles within a degree of the record for Sep. 26. This leads to
Major HeatRisk for late September for the Colorado River Valley
zones and has prompted an Excessive Heat Warning Thursday-Saturday
which matches warnings in nearby La Paz/Riverside counties.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

The area of high pressure will remain in place over the Desert
Southwest and keep temperatures several degrees above normal through
Saturday then a weak closed low near the California Coast is
forecast to lift slowly inland across Southern Nevada Sunday into
Monday and possibly Tuesday resulting in a slight cooling trend. The
closed low will have little to no moisture with it, but may pull
limited moisture from southwest Arizona up over northwest Arizona
and near Southern Nevada.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds with northeast or east
components during the afternoon and southwest components overnight
will continue through Wednesday. VFR conditions with no significant
clouds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Diurnal winds generally 10 knots or less are expected
at most regional TAF sites through Wednesday. The exception will be
KBIH where afternoon south winds 12-20 knots will develop. VFR
conditions will prevail at all sites with no significant cloud cover
expected.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Soulat
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/AVIATION...Adair

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