218
FXUS65 KVEF 152206
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
305 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty south winds today yield elevated to critical fire weather
  concerns across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona.

* Temperatures decrease throughout the work week with a gradual
  rebound over the weekend.

* An uptick in monsoonal moisture later in the week will result in
  increased chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

A shortwave trough dropping out of the PacNW and through the
northern Rockies has flattened the ridge that brought the dangerous
heat yesterday. As a result, temperatures today will top out a few
degrees lower, with the cooling trend continuing throughout the week
as 500mb heights fall and moisture increases. The uptick in PWATs
won`t be due to a typical Four Corners high, but rather a cutoff low
to our south. As the low slowly drifts northward, southeasterly flow
and moisture advection will increase, bringing shower and storm
chances to parts of the area. Currently, best odds are Thursday and
Friday from the Spring Mountains and points east where PoPs are 30-
70%, while activity farther west is more isolated. On either side of
these days, the potential for activity should be largely confined to
eastern Mohave County, with maybe an isolated shower/storm in the
Spring Mountains, Sierra, and/or eastern Lincoln County. All of the
typical convective hazards will be in play (flash flooding, gusty
outflow winds, and lightning), particularly on Thursday and Friday
when moisture is greatest. During the weekend, the low is forecast
to move through the Desert Southwest, resulting in westerly flow and
a decrease in moisture.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A system dropping out of the PacNW is inducing gusty
south winds across the area. With limited low-level moisture in
place, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. RH values in Mohave
and Clark counties (15-25%) are just high enough to preclude any
warnings, but Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for Nye and Lincoln
counties until 10PM where drier conditions exist. As moisture influx
continues throughout the week and winds gradually subside, chances
for rapid fire spread will decrease. However, the potential for dry
lightning will increase.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Southerly breezes throughout the TAF period. Best chances
of SSE component during the morning hours, with a more SSW component
expected during the afternoons and evenings. Gusts generally 15-25
knots. A few mid-level clouds around during peak heating, but
otherwise just some lingering wildfire haze. Temperatures remain
100F through 05z and again tomorrow around 19z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 00z Forecast Package...Southerly
to westerly breezes continue this evening with gusts generally 15-25
knots. Winds weaken after sunset but remain elevated through the
night. Similar wind patterns expected tomorrow but with slightly
weaker magnitude. A few mid-level clouds around during peak heating,
but otherwise just some lingering wildfire haze. Thunderstorm
activity should remain east of Mohave County today, but may (~30%)
into eastern portions of the county on Wednesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Woods


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